Decay watch: Cosmos 2358 & 2359 Soyuz rockets
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Fri, 26 Jun 1998 22:58:28 +0100
The current OIG elset for the decaying Cosmos 2358 Soyuz-U rocket is:
C 2358 Soyuz r 6.0 2.0 0.0 5.0 d 284 x 155 km
1 25374U 98038B 98177.74439785 .03954099 00000-0 60356-3 0 193
2 25374 67.1217 169.9908 0097853 93.3877 267.8698 16.20018245 362
This shows it 5 seconds early with respect to the SatEvo evolution I
posted a day ago. My current analysis indicates decay at June 28.5
+-0.4d, but at least one of the recent elsets is suspect.
Prediction:
C 2358 Soyuz r 6.0 2.0 0.0 5.0 d 271 x 154 km
1 25374U 98038B 98178.05279492 .04614924 59120-2 59694-3 0 90197
2 25374 67.1208 168.9278 0088652 93.0538 267.9610 16.22738116 418
C 2358 Soyuz r 6.0 2.0 0.0 5.0 d 246 x 151 km
1 25374U 98038B 98178.54510760 .05950341 14592-1 55662-3 0 90198
2 25374 67.1191 167.2215 0071552 92.5180 268.3013 16.27825334 494
C 2358 Soyuz r 6.0 2.0 0.0 5.0 d 230 x 150 km
1 25374U 98038B 98178.79062468 .07343937 24746-1 54006-3 0 90194
2 25374 67.1180 166.3653 0061266 92.2493 268.4523 16.31058616 531
C 2358 Soyuz r 6.0 2.0 0.0 5.0 d 211 x 146 km
1 25374U 98038B 98179.03558687 .10320511 62856-1 52552-3 0 90190
2 25374 67.1165 165.5066 0048893 91.9799 268.5801 16.35280926 578
C 2358 Soyuz r 6.0 2.0 0.0 5.0 d 181 x 139 km
1 25374U 98038B 98179.27975298 .19977926 27373+0 49518-3 0 90195
2 25374 67.1144 164.6443 0032120 91.7095 268.6585 16.42103170 615
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Current elsets for the other recent Cosmos launch:
Cosmos 2359 275 x 183 km
1 25376U 98039A 98177.25859532 .00618683 72331-5 26103-3 0 60
2 25376 64.9114 156.9232 0069653 67.7742 293.1087 16.16457300 115
C 2359 Soyuz r 6.0 2.0 0.0 5.0 d 258 x 176 km
1 25377U 98039B 98177.75167194 .02318554 00000-0 71100-3 0 132
2 25377 64.9274 155.1169 0062347 60.3543 300.3658 16.20984800 215
The Soyuz-U rocket may decay at June 29.9 +-0.5d. This one enters
eclipse at about 48 deg N in the morning sky and leaves eclipse at about
50 deg S, again before dawn.
SatEvo prediction:
C 2359 Soyuz r 6.0 2.0 0.0 5.0 d 250 x 174 km
1 25377U 98039B 98178.05994318 .02980244 38879-2 81725-3 0 90133
2 25377 64.9268 153.9578 0057828 60.2147 300.3592 16.22826718 262
C 2359 Soyuz r 6.0 2.0 0.0 5.0 d 236 x 170 km
1 25377U 98039B 98178.55245641 .03737725 67935-2 83106-3 0 90131
2 25377 64.9257 152.0993 0049766 59.9909 300.5019 16.26101334 343
C 2359 Soyuz r 6.0 2.0 0.0 5.0 d 218 x 165 km
1 25377U 98039B 98179.04383831 .05211878 15036-1 84665-3 0 90133
2 25377 64.9243 150.2351 0040139 59.7667 300.6299 16.30404205 428
C 2359 Soyuz r 6.0 2.0 0.0 5.0 d 191 x 155 km
1 25377U 98039B 98179.53361243 .09809062 65366-1 77857-3 0 90138
2 25377 64.9220 148.3627 0027358 59.5417 300.7281 16.37231461 506
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo satellite page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/