Decay watch: Jun 8

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Tue, 8 Jun 1999 19:20:23 +0100

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Object: #23186 = 94- 43 B = APStar 1 Long March (CZ-3) r 

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jun  3 20:14     Jun  7 20:47 +-3d        21.1 N    19.9 E
SpaceCom   Jun  4 23:41     Jun  7 20:25 +-2d        11.7 N    79.3 W
SpaceCom   Jun  5 22:29     Jun  7 23:00 +-1d        26.4 S   135.1 E
SpaceCom   Jun  6 23:23     Jun  7 23:52 +-15h       22.1 N    31.2 W
SpaceCom   Jun  7 13:34     Jun  8 01:54 +-9h        24.9 S    59.8 E
SpaceCom   Jun  7 22:35     Jun  8 03:43 +-3h        12.7 S   117.2 E
SpaceCom   Jun  8 01:37     Jun  8 03:36 +-2h        22.6 S    89.6 E
SpaceCom   Jun  8 03:48     Jun  8 03:34 +-7m        19.0 S   100.0 E

SatEvo     Jun  4 21:45     Jun  8 07:00 +-1d
SatEvo     Jun  5 12:25     Jun  9 02:14 +-1.3d
SatEvo     Jun  6 15:40     Jun  8 06:32 +-15h
SatEvo     Jun  7 20.05     Jun  8 05:02 +-3h        20.2 S    75.7 E
SatEvo     Jun  8 17:05     Jun  8 03:34 +-90m       20.5 S    97.2 E

Final elset (38 seconds early on yesterday's prediction):
APStar 1 CZ-3 r                                  276 x 122 km
1 23186U 94043B   99159.03524062  .69572668 -98345-5  12384-2 0  7087
2 23186  26.5576  95.8273 0117073 301.3547  57.8559 16.27565814 68434

Note: This probably decayed one orbit earlier than I predicted, close 
to perigee. I think is just possible, though, that it survived for up 
to one more orbit, hence the +-90m uncertainty in my estimate.
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/