Decaywatch: Jun 11 (Meteor 1-2 r)

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Fri, 11 Jun 1999 19:52:46 +0100

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Object: #4120 = 69- 84 B = Meteor 1-2 Vostok r 

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jun 11 00:05     Jun 15 00:31 +-2d         6.8 N     0.5 E

SatEvo     Jun  9 21:45     Jun 14 07:36 +-1d
SatEvo     Jun 10 21:30     Jun 14 10:34 +-19h
SatEvo     Jun 11 18:45     Jun 14 19:24 +-15h

Latest elset (6 sec late on yesterday's prediction):
Meteor 1-2 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            215 x 207 km
1 04120U 69084B   99162.74193198  .01306893 -94962-6  54289-3 0  7843
2 04120  81.2005  95.8552 0006066 191.3361 168.7479 16.23124573625257

SatEvo prediction:
Meteor 1-2 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            212 x 204 km
1 04120U 69084B   99163.05006128  .01866746  18413-2  70747-3 0 97840
2 04120  81.2001  95.4360 0005826 190.1264 169.8617 16.24257968625306
Meteor 1-2 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            206 x 199 km
1 04120U 69084B   99163.54263347  .02154601  22948-2  69210-3 0 97844
2 04120  81.1994  94.7644 0005408 188.1884 171.8028 16.26232593625380
Meteor 1-2 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            200 x 193 km
1 04120U 69084B   99164.03456139  .02567648  38987-2  67427-3 0 97849
2 04120  81.1986  94.0916 0004941 186.2470 173.7468 16.28538300625462

Note: The decay appears to be slipping later though the drag reported 
by SpaceCom has swung wildly over the past day - the value in the
latest elset looks too low. Observed by Russell at mag 1.5 this morning.
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/