Decay watch: Jun 14 (Meteor 1-2 r)

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 14 Jun 1999 19:37:04 +0100

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Object: #4120 = 69- 84 B = Meteor 1-2 Vostok r 

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jun 11 00:05     Jun 15 00:31 +-2d         6.8 N     0.5 E
SpaceCom   Jun 12 00:20     Jun 15 00:34 +-2d         1.4 S     1.2 E
SpaceCom   Jun 12 23:34     Jun 14 20:45 +-1d        31.9 S   127.1 W
SpaceCom   Jun 14 01:05     Jun 15 00:45 +-14h       49.4 S     8.4 E
SpaceCom   Jun 14 12:04     Jun 15 00:33 +-8h         2.3 N     0.8 E
SpaceCom   Jun 14 17:55     Jun 15 00:24 +-5h        37.9 N     3.5 W

SatEvo     Jun  9 21:45     Jun 14 07:36 +-1d
SatEvo     Jun 10 21:30     Jun 14 10:34 +-19h
SatEvo     Jun 11 18:45     Jun 14 19:24 +-15h
SatEvo     Jun 12 17:00     Jun 14 19:23 +-11h
SatEvo     Jun 13 19:00     Jun 14 20:18 +-5h        43.6 S    72.8 E
SatEvo     Jun 14 18:00     Jun 15 00:30 +-2h         0.0       1.0 E
SatEvo     Jun 14 18:25     Jun 14 23:46 +-90m        0.0     168.0 W

Latest elset (28 sec late on yesterday's prediction):
Meteor 1-2 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            161 x 148 km
1 04120U 69084B   99165.68721771  .09036042 -96110-6  27252-3 0  8081
2 04120  81.1916  91.8074 0009753 242.7963 117.2441 16.44376448625731

SatEvo prediction:
Meteor 1-2 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            156 x 144 km
1 04120U 69084B   99165.74801749  .13530795  14897+0  30160-3 0 98086
2 04120  81.1911  91.7220 0009038 242.5502 117.3578 16.46035853625748
Meteor 1-2 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            150 x 140 km
1 04120U 69084B   99165.80878002  .16936393  25048+0  27650-3 0 98086
2 04120  81.1905  91.6364 0008191 242.3037 117.6132 16.47869469625758
Meteor 1-2 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            143 x 134 km
1 04120U 69084B   99165.86946611  .23467885  54658+0  26227-3 0 98085
2 04120  81.1897  91.5508 0007124 242.0568 117.8711 16.50269966625764
Meteor 1-2 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            133 x 125 km
1 04120U 69084B   99165.93004492  .41530203  19786+1  27251-3 0 98082
2 04120  81.1885  91.4649 0005570 241.8092 118.1345 16.53980143625776

Note: As Harro and SpaceCom agree, the decay has slipped. A few minutes
ago I was predicting re-entry near a southbound equator crossing over 
the Gulf of Guinea, after passing over E Iceland (00:14 UTC), Ireland 
(00:16), the Bay of Biscay (00:19), Madrid, Spain, (00:20) and across 
W Africa from the Morocco/Algeria border (00:21) to Ghana (00:28).
However, the latest elset (just published) has it running slightly 
early and the decay looks more likely near the preceding northbound
equator crossing over the mid-Pacific.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/