Decay watch: Jun 15 (Meteor 1-2 r falls)

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Tue, 15 Jun 1999 07:56:17 +0100

Messages sorted by: [ date ][ thread ][ subject ][ author ]
Next message: Harro.Zimmer: "Meteor 1-2 R/B decayed"
Previous message: JAY RESPLER: "Re: Oldest SAT. 34 deg orbit"

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Object: #4120 = 69- 84 B = Meteor 1-2 Vostok r 

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jun 11 00:05     Jun 15 00:31 +-2d         6.8 N     0.5 E
SpaceCom   Jun 12 00:20     Jun 15 00:34 +-2d         1.4 S     1.2 E
SpaceCom   Jun 12 23:34     Jun 14 20:45 +-1d        31.9 S   127.1 W
SpaceCom   Jun 14 01:05     Jun 15 00:45 +-14h       49.4 S     8.4 E
SpaceCom   Jun 14 12:04     Jun 15 00:33 +-8h         2.3 N     0.8 E
SpaceCom   Jun 14 17:55     Jun 15 00:24 +-5h        37.9 N     3.5 W
SpaceCom   Jun 14 22:02     Jun 15 00:21 +-3h        51.4 N     7.0 W
SpaceCom   Jun 15 04:52     Jun 15 00:19 +-54m       58.2 N     9.8 W

SatEvo     Jun  9 21:45     Jun 14 07:36 +-1d
SatEvo     Jun 10 21:30     Jun 14 10:34 +-19h
SatEvo     Jun 11 18:45     Jun 14 19:24 +-15h
SatEvo     Jun 12 17:00     Jun 14 19:23 +-11h
SatEvo     Jun 13 19:00     Jun 14 20:18 +-5h        43.6 S    72.8 E
SatEvo     Jun 14 18:00     Jun 15 00:30 +-2h         0.0       1.0 E
SatEvo     Jun 14 18:25     Jun 14 23:46 +-90m        0.0     168.0 W
SatEvo     Jun 15 06:35     Jun 15 00:15 +-60m       59.8 N    10.6 W

Final elset (0.9 sec late on yesterday's prediction):
Meteor 1-2 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            152 x 139 km
1 04120U 69084B   99165.80881039  .13920145 -97032-6  22827-3 0  8098
2 04120  81.2048  91.6726 0010336 250.0401 109.9695 16.47618648625753

Note: A good agreement between SpaceCom and SatEvo in the end. The
predicted decay occurred just before it passed to the W of Scotland 
and S across Ireland; though the event might have been visible from
here, cloud intervened and I saw nothing. My predicted elset for the
final equator crossing:
Meteor 1-2 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            117 x 111 km
1 04120U 69084B   99165.99053399 1.07336993  20566+2  34368-3 0 98098
2 04120  81.2009  91.4153 0004477 249.2973 110.6547 16.59662890625784
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/

Next message: Harro.Zimmer: "Meteor 1-2 R/B decayed"
Previous message: JAY RESPLER: "Re: Oldest SAT. 34 deg orbit"