Decay watch: June 21

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 21 Jun 1999 21:25:30 +0100

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Object: #23558 = 86- 17 JE = GFZ 1

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jun 17 00:38     Jun 23 13:22 +-4d        47.6 S     5.3 W
SpaceCom   Jun 19 15:53     Jun 23 15:21 +-2d        14.9 N    96.6 E
SpaceCom   Jun 20 18:00     Jun 23 13:52 +-2d        10.0 N   115.1 E
SpaceCom   Jun 21 17:40     Jun 23 14:14 +-1d        50.7 N   152.9 W

SatEvo     Jun 17 19:30     Jun 23 18:00 +-1.3d
SatEvo     Jun 20 17:15     Jun 23 16:44 +-16h
SatEvo     Jun 21 20:00     Jun 23 15:59 +-10h

Latest elset (4 sec early against yesterday's SatEvo prediction):
GFZ 1            0.3  0.0  0.0 11.0 d            171 x 163 km
1 23558U 86017JE  99172.63179073  .01997902  12402-4  14988-3 0  7664
2 23558  51.6203 237.1146 0005984 313.6858  46.5052 16.39688872763057

SatEvo prediction:
GFZ 1            0.3  0.0  0.0 11.0 d            166 x 159 km
1 23558U 86017JE  99173.05815230  .02137160  33521-2  13019-3 0 97662
2 23558  51.6198 234.7021 0005521 315.4876  44.4680 16.41335198763127
GFZ 1            0.3  0.0  0.0 11.0 d            159 x 153 km
1 23558U 86017JE  99173.54487647  .02810111  63720-2  11190-3 0 97669
2 23558  51.6191 231.9402 0004891 317.5504  42.4117 16.43708449763209
GFZ 1            0.3  0.0  0.0 11.0 d            150 x 145 km
1 23558U 86017JE  99174.03077339  .04333987  17930-1  84928-4 0 97661
2 23558  51.6182 229.1720 0004043 319.6181  40.3518 16.47055783763284
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Object: #16686 = 86- 31 D = Molniya 3-28 r2

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jun 17 01:00     Jun 23 16:44 +-4d        46.6 S    44.7 W
SpaceCom   Jun 20 05:29     Jun 24 05:35 +-2d        27.7 S   139.1 E
SpaceCom   Jun 21 01:35     Jun 24 05:27 +-2d        56.8 S   102.6 E
SpaceCom   Jun 21 08:42     Jun 24 05:17 +-2d        60.9 S    53.9 E

SatEvo     Jun 17 19:35     Jun 24 00:00 +-2d
SatEvo     Jun 20 17:30     Jun 24 09:52 +-1.3d
SatEvo     Jun 21 20:20     Jun 24 05:27 +-18h

Latest elset (2.4 min early against yesterday's prediction):
Moln 3-28 r2                                     5607 x 74 km
1 16686U 86031D   99172.53723083  .48627173  51928-5  64730-3 0  4822
2 16686  61.7562 156.9742 3000784 260.4311 298.0500  9.80879132 84798

SatEvo prediction:
Moln 3-28 r2                                     5119 x 80 km
1 16686U 86031D   99172.87258896  .60000212  58205-1  10429-2 0 94822
2 16686  61.7555 156.4303 2806617 260.4999  67.0749 10.20658145 84837
Moln 3-28 r2                                     4569 x 80 km
1 16686U 86031D   99173.25619958  .67593316  75078-1  10746-2 0 94823
2 16686  61.7548 155.7592 2579017 260.5848  69.6443 10.69479771 84878
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/