Decay watch: June 27

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 27 Jun 1999 20:13:01 +0100

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Object: #16686 = 86- 31 D = Molniya 3-28 r2

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jun 17 01:00     Jun 23 16:44 +-4d        46.6 S    44.7 W
SpaceCom   Jun 20 05:29     Jun 24 05:35 +-2d        27.7 S   139.1 E
SpaceCom   Jun 21 01:35     Jun 24 05:27 +-2d        56.8 S   102.6 E
SpaceCom   Jun 21 08:42     Jun 24 05:17 +-2d        60.9 S    53.9 E
SpaceCom   Jun 22 16:51     Jun 24 07:40 +-1d        47.4 S    88.3 E
SpaceCom   Jun 23 05:19     Jun 24 05:39 +-15h       60.2 S    84.8 E
SpaceCom   Jun 23 05:19     Jun 24 05:39 +-15h       60.2 S    84.8 E
SpaceCom   Jun 23 21:52     Jun 24 05:55 +-5h        56.8 S    95.8 E
SpaceCom   Jun 27 10:44     Jun 28 10:48 +-5h        35.4 S    36.4 E

SatEvo     Jun 17 19:35     Jun 24 00:00 +-2d
SatEvo     Jun 20 17:30     Jun 24 09:52 +-1.3d
SatEvo     Jun 21 20:20     Jun 24 05:27 +-18h
SatEvo     Jun 22 19:55     Jun 24 05:31 +-11h
SatEvo     Jun 23 18:40     Jun 24 07:34 +-5h        61.3 S    22.8 E
SatEvo     Jun 24 19:15     Jun 27 20:00 +-?
SatEvo     Jun 25 22:30     Jun 28 11:55 +-20h
SatEvo     Jun 26 19:00     Jun 28 13:39 +-14h
SatEvo     Jun 27 18:45     Jun 28 12:01 +-6h        61.6 S    59.2 W

Latest elset (146 sec early against yesterday's prediction):
Moln 3-28 r2                                     766 x 88 km
1 16686U 86031D   99178.70015046  .33389109  72492-5  27966-3 0  5389
2 16686  61.7288 139.2827 0498180 263.5917 105.7758 15.46454566 85626

SatEvo prediction:
Moln 3-28 r2                                     677 x 86 km
1 16686U 86031D   99178.89058185  .43143078  13150+0  30417-3 0 95388
2 16686  61.7234 138.5548 0437181 263.6854  91.3189 15.62066933 85650
Moln 3-28 r2                                     535 x 85 km
1 16686U 86031D   99179.14488244  .58147824  29764+0  33077-3 0 95382
2 16686  61.7150 137.5549 0336553 263.8145  92.3416 15.87298591 85695
Moln 3-28 r2                                     325 x 82 km
1 16686U 86031D   99179.39445603 1.13772868  19503+1  40779-3 0 95383
2 16686  61.7025 136.5299 0184152 263.9477  93.9509 16.25944488 85733
Moln 3-28 r2                                     233 x 81 km
1 16686U 86031D   99179.45578292 1.87627828  74258+1  47707-3 0 95383
2 16686  61.6977 136.2673 0116657 263.9820  94.6874 16.43372109 85747

Note: I place decay near perigee on the final SatEvo-predicted orbit
above. SpaceCom (welcome back) place it shortly after the previous 
perigee.
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Object: #25670 = 99- 17 B = DSP 19 Titan 4 r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jun 27 10:54     Jul  1 10:37 +-19h       22.2 S   171.6 W

SatEvo     Jun 27 18:50     Jul  2 09:07 +-1d

Latest elset:
DSP 19 Titan 4 r                                 300 x 157 km
1 25670U 99017B   99178.66195038  .01622359 -73473-5  30334-3 0  1422
2 25670  28.6187  67.9412 0108286 277.1324  81.6910 16.16599172 12379

SatEvo prediction:
DSP 19 Titan 4 r                                 294 x 156 km
1 25670U 99017B   99179.03214957  .01783614  90857-3  30987-3 0 91423
2 25670  28.6185  65.0742 0104721 281.7913  77.0358 16.17904679 12432
DSP 19 Titan 4 r                                 277 x 152 km
1 25670U 99017B   99180.01784637  .02119647  14250-2  29340-3 0 91423
2 25670  28.6178  57.4129 0094774 294.2409  64.7718 16.21727186 12594

Note: This enters eclipse while northbound near 14 deg N latitude at 
around 19:30 local time. Eclipse exit occurs near 25 deg S at 06:00
local time.
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/