Decay Alert SOYUZ R/B

From: Harro Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de)
Date: Sat Jun 02 2001 - 06:41:10 PDT

  • Next message: Alan Pickup: "Decay watch: 2001 Jun 2"

    Report time 13:00 UTC
    
    2001-022B (#26776) SOYUZ 3.Stage
    
    SPACECOM'S  12 HOURS BEFORE DECAY message - prepared June 02, 07:28 UTC - shows
    the decay on         2 June, 18:59 UTC +/-07 hours (28.3°S, 146.8°E)
    on a descending pass over SE Australia. The pass begin to cross the  continent 
    from the Gulf of Carpentaria to the SE. There could be an excellent visibility 
    possibility  from Adelaide around 18:57 UTC.  
    But..... I have real problems to reproduce this early decay time with MPM + 
    REENTRY under the assumption of random tumbling.Based on the standard procedure 
    the decay should be at least one rev later. 
    With a retrofitting of all released ELSET'S the program shows surprisingly a 
    solution with an unusual large drag area of the R/B and the following 
    prediction:
                        2 June, 18:45 UTC +/- 24 minutes (10.72°N, 131.46°E) 
    on a southbound pass over the Pacific.
    But let us wait and see.....
    
    Harro
    
    Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de
    Berlin, Germany
    
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