A summary of the latest update to my Decay Watch page.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #20390 = 89-100 B = Cosmos 2053 rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Jun 5 04:20 Jun 5 04:08 +-7m 40.0 S 23.0 W
SatEvo Jun 5 18:45 Jun 5 04:05 +-30m 27.4 S 28.1 W
Final elset:
Cosmos 2053 r 7.4 2.4 0.0 5.5 v 6.3 134 x 119 km
1 20390U 89100B 03156.07486444 .20951626 23557-5 11172-3 0 8389
2 20390 73.4670 97.7476 0012040 265.5074 94.4822 16.54957575751443
Note: The final elset shows this running 8 sec early against the
prediction I posted here yesterday. I estimate that it decayed
southbound over the Atlantic to the E of Brazil on the following
predicted orbit:
Cosmos 2053 r 7.4 2.4 0.0 5.5 v 6.3 122 x 110 km
1 20390U 89100B 03156.13522758 .37905485 16400+1 12630-3 0 98388
2 20390 73.4658 97.5875 0008728 265.3400 94.5603 16.58975078751450
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Object: #25895 = 99- 46 B = Koreasat 3 Ariane 42P rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Jun 4 16:13 Jun 6 06:05 +-1d 2.2 S 8.7 E
SatEvo Jun 5 18:20 Jun 6 21:20 +-10h 3.0 N 90.2 E
Latest elsets:
Koreasat 3 Ariane 42P r 1091 x 115 km
1 25895U 99046B 03156.38044196 .30686331 -25734-4 10373-2 0 6233
2 25895 7.0748 161.6071 0698343 107.4313 260.5017 14.88418852 47507
Koreasat 3 Ariane 42P r 868 x 242 km
1 25895U 99046B 03156.58039763 .39941998 00000-0 21496+0 0 6241
2 25895 7.0961 160.8606 0451717 106.2327 261.0180 15.03951645 47522
Koreasat 3 Ariane 42P r 799 x 286 km
1 25895U 99046B 03156.64656310 .42163133 00000-0 47380+0 0 6253
2 25895 7.1029 160.3377 0370634 108.6824 257.9996 15.08033684 47533
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
(ends)
Koreasat 3 Ariane 42P r 343 x 103 km
1 25895U 99046B 03157.80164211 1.00361263 14907+1 85380-3 0 96239
2 25895 7.0681 150.4010 0182348 129.5872 232.0371 16.18764203 47720
Koreasat 3 Ariane 42P r 267 x 100 km
1 25895U 99046B 03157.86288566 1.48804943 54786+1 93595-3 0 96230
2 25895 7.0674 149.8580 0126575 130.6610 230.4461 16.33395753 47739
Note: The two latest elsets have perigees that are much too high and
are ignored in my analysis. I have this decaying between Sri Lanka
and Sumatra, Indonesia, on the last of my SatEvo-predicted revs.
The prediction remains uncertain.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo Home Page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Jun 05 2003 - 14:59:07 EDT