Re.: Molniya3-37 decay forecast

From: Harro Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de)
Date: Wed Jun 18 2003 - 16:32:00 EDT

  • Next message: Alan Pickup: "Decay watch: 2003 June 18"

    Report time: 20:00 UTC
    
    SCC'S 06 HOURS BEFORE DECAY message - prepared June 18, 17:47 UTC - predicts the decay on
    19 June, 00:05 UTC +/- 04 hours (26.2°S, 50.7°E)
    descending over the Indian Ocean - Madagascar.
    
    I have no current prediction. The last ELSETs 03169.716... and
    03169.786... show a sharp change of the first derivative of the
    mean motion from 0.9999.... to 0.099... and working with last
    ELSET we would see a decay more than 10 hours from now.
    It is possible that we saw a breakup with a lost of all appendages and so a dramatic change of the ballistic coefficient.
    An ELSET comparison program shows for this possible event a time
    short before 16:52:04 UTC possibly at the perigee passage
    around 16:25 UTC.
    
    Harro
    
    Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de
    Berlin, Germany
    
    
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