RE: estimate path of Cosmos 1?

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@rogers.com)
Date: Tue Jun 21 2005 - 08:04:42 EDT

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    Dr. Jin Zhu asked:
    
    > Can anyone give an estimate for the path of Cosmos 1? Is it 
    > possible to watch it from Beijing, China within 1-2 hours 
    > after its launching?
    
    Assuming launch on-time on 2005 Jun 21 at 19:46:09 UTC, and achieving exactly
    the planned orbit, Cosmos 1's first pass visible from Beijing will occur about
    16h 45m after launch. It would culminate about 56 degree above the eastern
    horizon
    
    The solar sail will not have deployed yet, so the spacecraft would be faint - I
    estimate a brightest magnitude of 7.4 +/- 2 on the pass in question. The sun
    will be a bit more than 6 deg below the horizon, so the sky will not be very
    dark, making observation especially challenging. It might be visible in 7x50
    binoculars, but 11x80 or 20x80 would greatly improve the probability of seeing
    it.
    
    The official estimated orbital elements are available on this Heavens-Above web
    page:
    
    http://www.heavens-above.com/orbitdisplay.asp?lat=48.067&lng=11.267&alt=595&loc=
    Oberpfaffenhofen&TZ=CET&satid=67000
    
    Elements derived from tracking are likely to become available well before
    Beijing's first visible pass.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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