Odd one (Re: South Pacific debris warning)

From: Marco Langbroek via Seesat-l <seesat-l_at_satobs.org>
Date: Sat, 1 Jun 2019 13:50:59 +0200
Op 30-5-2019 om 16:10 schreef satcom ops via Seesat-l:

> SECURITE
> FM: NAVAREA XIV COORDINATOR 301140 UTC MAY 19
> NAVAREA XIV WARNING 64/19
> SOUTH PACIFIC
> 1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS FROM
> 041200 TO 041400 UTC JUN 19 IN AREA BOUNDED BY:
> A. 29-27S 166-14W
> B. 33-45S 161-07W
> C. 47-19S 132-53W
> D. 50-03S 118-34W
> E. 49-07S 093-18W
> F. 51-53S 092-17W
> G. 52-17S 118-41W
> H. 49-51S 133-13W
> I. 36-32S 160-52W
> J. 32-15S 167-19W
> 2. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE 041500 UTC JUN 19.
> NNNN
> SECURITE


That one is odd, especially since there is now a warning out for a second zone
nearby as well.

Together they make for a double hazard area zone with three time slots given.

One is for June 4,  12:00-14:00 UT (the same as John's above):


HYDROPAC 1779/19

SOUTH PACIFIC.
DNC 06, DNC 07.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS 041200Z TO 041400Z
JUN IN AREA BOUND BY
29-27S 166-14W, 33-45S 161-07W,
47-19S 132-53W, 50-03S 118-34W,
49-07S 093-18W, 51-53S 092-17W,
52-17S 118-41W, 49-51S 133-13W,
36-32S 160-52W, 32-15S 167-19W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 041500Z JUN 19.//

Authority: NAVAREA XIV 64/19 301140Z MAY 19.

Date: 301221Z MAY 19
Cancel: 04150000 Jun 19


The other has the same area but with another time window, for June 4
16:00-18:00. Plus a second area shifted in geographic locality, for June 5
16:00-18:00, a day later:

HYDROPAC 1781/19

SOUTH PACIFIC.
DNC 06, DNC 07.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
041600Z TO 041800Z JUN IN AREA BOUND BY
29-27S 166-14W, 33-45S 161-07W,
47-19S 132-53W, 50-03S 118-34W,
49-07S 093-18W, 51-53S 092-17W,
52-17S 118-41W, 49-51S 133-13W,
36-32S 160-52W, 32-15S 167-19W.
2. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
051600Z TO 051800Z JUN IN AREA BOUND BY
38-18S 171-40W, 42-00S 164-56W
50-34S 130-04W, 50-25S 114-24W
45-36S 092-41W, 47-20S 090-42W
52-15S 115-25W, 52-41S 130-30W
44-44S 164-39W, 41-07S 172-24W.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 051900Z JUN 19.//

Authority: NAVAREA XV 76/19 310242Z MAY 19.

Date: 310253Z MAY 19
Cancel: 05190000 Jun 19


The shape and location of the two areas are consistent with something deorbiting
from a ~51.5 degree inclined Low Earth Orbit, with the area's covering the
southern apex of two consecutive revolutions in such an orbit.

One way to interpret this, is upper stage deorbit zones connected to a launch
into an ISS-like orbit, with a two-hour launch window opening June 4 soemwhat
before 12:00 UT, a repeat cycle of four hours in case of an abort, and a backup
at June 5.

The odd thing is that the June 5th deorbit area then would indicate a launch
window start 4 hours later than on June 4th, and a deorbit one revolution later
than for a June 4th launch. Why?

The only obvious launch candidate in the logs is the Jilin-1 launch, which is a
sea launch from a vessel in the Yellow Sea slated for June 5th.

The SECOND area (the HYDROPAC 1781/19 area 2 for June 5, 16:00-18:00) would
match with a launch from the Yellow Sea half an hour earlier (i.e. 15:30-17:30,
June 5 UT), for launch at approx. 31.5 N, 122.5 E.

The FIRST area (HYDROPAC 1779/19 for June 4 12:00-14:00 and HYDROPAC 1781/19
area 1 for June 4, 16:00-18:00) however is very difficult to reconcile with a
Yellow Sea launch - it rather indicates something launched in the sea of Japan,
at the other side of the Korean peninsula. It also would appear to be a day early.

So what is this? Is the first area a mistake? Did someone mistakenly calculate a
deorbit area for a full orbit *before* launch rather than *after* launch? Is it
not related to the Jilin-1 sea launch at all, but deorbit of something (what?)
already on-orbit?

It would appear to be too late in date to be connected to the DRAGON CRS-17
deorbit/reentry on June 3 in front of the Californian coast. The two areas in
the south Pacific match consecutive ISS passes on June 4th at 12:25 and 14:00
UT, and on June 5th on 11:35 and 13:15 UT, but this does not match the time
windows of the broadcast warnings well.

- Marco


-----
Dr Marco Langbroek  -  SatTrackCam Leiden, the Netherlands.
e-mail: sattrackcam_at_langbroek.org

Station (b)log: http://sattrackcam.blogspot.com
Twitter: _at_Marco_Langbroek
-----



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Received on Sat Jun 01 2019 - 06:51:48 UTC

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