Jian Bing 93 decay predictions

Mike McCants (mike@comshare.com)
Sun, 10 Mar 1996 20:14:50 -0600

Jian Bing 93
1 22870U 93063H   96069.55879199  .02744120  11308-4  11505-3 0  5126
2 22870  56.4144  27.3788 0131027  76.9255 284.6304 16.19120968117681

I have computed two possible decay scenarios.  I expect that the actual
decay will be between the two, but I have been wrong in the past.

The so-called "high drag" elsets give a decay about 1:00 UT on March 12.
The "low drag" elsets give a decay about 3:45 UT.  

[I also executed NPOE 3.0 with the 67.5 and 69.5 elsets.  I adjusted
the satellite area value in order to produce consistent "crashes"
when the satellite has a negative altitude (or something).  The
consistent time was March 12 about 4:00 UT.  A 3% increase in area
with the 69.5 elset gave 2:00 UT.]

It is possible that if/when OIG has an elset around 71.5 (about
20:00 UT March 11?), the new elset can be compared to my predictions
and some conclusions drawn.

I should be able to perform more computations about 1:00 UT March 12.

After the elsets, I have lat, long times for when I guessed that
the satellite would be over Canada or the US when it is dark.

High drag elsets:

1 22870U 93063H   96071.03547000  .05230000  00000-0  24000-3 0    00
2 22870  56.4144  20.1350 0084000  80.3760 279.7360 16.30900000    00

1 22870U 93063H   96071.52486000  .07940000  00000-0  34000-3 0    00
2 22870  56.4144  17.7200 0061000  81.5260 278.5850 16.37040000    00

1 22870U 93063H   96071.58588000  .08590000  00000-0  40000-3 0    00
2 22870  56.4144  17.4180 0058000  81.6700 278.4420 16.38090000    00

1 22870U 93063H   96071.64686300  .09390000  00000-0  50000-3 0    00
2 22870  56.4144  17.1160 0054000  81.8130 278.2980 16.39240000    00

1 22870U 93063H   96071.70780000  .10430000  00000-0  50000-3 0    00
2 22870  56.4144  16.8140 0050000  81.9570 278.1540 16.40510000    00

1 22870U 93063H   96071.76867000  .11800000  00000-0  50000-3 0    00
2 22870  56.4144  16.5120 0046000  82.1010 278.0100 16.41950000    00

1 22870U 93063H   96071.82949000  .13760000  00000-0  50000-3 0    00
2 22870  56.4144  16.2100 0041000  82.2450 277.8660 16.43620000    00

1 22870U 93063H   96071.89023000  .16790000  00000-0  50000-3 0    00
2 22870  56.4144  15.9090 0034000  82.3890 277.7220 16.45660000    00

1 22870U 93063H   96071.95087000  .22250000  00000-0  50000-3 0    00
2 22870  56.4144  15.6070 0026000  82.5320 277.5790 16.48360000    00

1 22870U 93063H   96072.01135000  .36020000  00000-0  50000-3 0    00
2 22870  56.4144  15.3050 0011000  82.6760 277.4350 16.52720000    00

Re-entry interface at 100Km at 72.040 = March 12 at 1:00 UT.

Low drag elsets:

1 22870U 93063H   96071.03574000  .04800000  00000-0  24000-3 0    00
2 22870  56.4144  20.1350 0085000  80.3760 279.7360 16.29980000    00

1 22870U 93063H   96071.52544000  .06880000  00000-0  34000-3 0    00
2 22870  56.4144  17.7200 0066000  81.5260 278.5850 16.35670000    00

1 22870U 93063H   96071.58651000  .07330000  00000-0  40000-3 0    00
2 22870  56.4144  17.4180 0063000  81.6700 278.4420 16.36560000    00

1 22870U 93063H   96071.64756000  .07870000  00000-0  50000-3 0    00
2 22870  56.4144  17.1160 0060000  81.8130 278.2980 16.37530000    00

1 22870U 93063H   96071.70856000  .08520000  00000-0  50000-3 0    00
2 22870  56.4144  16.8140 0056000  81.9570 278.1540 16.38570000    00

1 22870U 93063H   96071.76952000  .09330000  00000-0  50000-3 0    00
2 22870  56.4144  16.5120 0053000  82.1010 278.0100 16.39700000    00

1 22870U 93063H   96071.83044000  .10380000  00000-0  50000-3 0    00
2 22870  56.4144  16.2100 0049000  82.2450 277.8660 16.40970000    00

1 22870U 93063H   96071.89130000  .11780000  00000-0  50000-3 0    00
2 22870  56.4144  15.9090 0044000  82.3890 277.7220 16.42400000    00

1 22870U 93063H   96071.95210000  .13780000  00000-0  50000-3 0    00
2 22870  56.4144  15.6070 0039000  82.5320 277.5790 16.44080000    00

1 22870U 93063H   96072.01282000  .16910000  00000-0  50000-3 0    00
2 22870  56.4144  15.3050 0033000  82.6760 277.4350 16.46130000    00

1 22870U 93063H   96072.07345000  .22660000  00000-0  50000-3 0    00
2 22870  56.4144  15.0030 0025000  82.8200 277.2910 16.48880000    00

1 22870U 93063H   96072.13390000  .37910000  00000-0  50000-3 0    00
2 22870  56.4144  14.7010 0011000  82.9640 277.1470 16.53470000    00

Re-entry interface at 100Km at 72.157 = March 12 at 3:45 UT.

-----

 Ncat 22870     Jian Bing 93

U is degrees since south-north equator crossing.
Height is meaningless.
Time is UT.
Revs is meaningless.
Longitude is negative for west longitude.

***  96 Mar 12   Times are UT *****

  U  Hgt Hr Mn  Revs   Lat  Long
 73   90  0 34   1.0  53.0-102.0
 77   91  0 35   1.0  54.5 -95.7
 81   91  0 36   1.0  55.6 -89.0
 85   91  0 37   1.0  56.3 -82.0
 89   91  0 38   1.0  56.6 -74.8
 93   91  0 39   1.0  56.4 -67.6
 97   91  0 40   1.0  55.8 -60.5
102   91  0 41   1.1  54.7 -53.8
106   91  0 42   1.1  53.3 -47.4
110   90  0 43   1.1  51.5 -41.6
...
218   93  1  9   1.4 -31.1  31.3
222   94  1 10   1.4 -34.2  34.3
226   95  1 11   1.4 -37.2  37.5
...
 65   90  1 59   2.0  49.3-134.8
 69   90  2  0   2.0  51.3-129.5
 73   90  2  1   2.0  53.1-123.7
 77   91  2  2   2.0  54.6-117.4
 81   91  2  3   2.0  55.7-110.6
 85   91  2  4   2.0  56.4-103.6
 90   91  2  5   2.0  56.6 -96.3
 94   91  2  6   2.0  56.4 -89.1
 98   91  2  7   2.0  55.7 -82.0
102   91  2  8   2.1  54.6 -75.3
106   91  2  9   2.1  53.1 -69.0
110   90  2 10   2.1  51.3 -63.2
114   90  2 11   2.1  49.3 -57.8
119   90  2 12   2.1  46.9 -52.9
...
 82   91  3 30   3.0  55.9-130.6
 87   91  3 31   3.0  56.5-123.4
 91   91  3 32   3.0  56.6-116.1
 95   91  3 33   3.0  56.2-108.9
 99   91  3 34   3.0  55.4-101.9
103   91  3 35   3.1  54.2 -95.3
107   91  3 36   3.1  52.6 -89.1
112   90  3 37   3.1  50.7 -83.4
116   90  3 38   3.1  48.5 -78.2
120   90  3 39   3.1  46.1 -73.5
124   89  3 40   3.1  43.5 -69.2
...
 93   91  4 59   4.0  56.4-134.3
 97   91  5  0   4.0  55.8-127.1
101   91  5  1   4.1  54.8-120.3
106   91  5  2   4.1  53.4-113.9
110   90  5  3   4.1  51.6-108.0
114   90  5  4   4.1  49.5-102.5
118   90  5  5   4.1  47.2 -97.6
122   89  5  6   4.1  44.7 -93.1
126   89  5  7   4.1  42.0 -89.0
131   88  5  8   4.1  39.1 -85.2
135   88  5  9   4.1  36.1 -81.8
139   88  5 10   4.2  33.0 -78.7
143   87  5 11   4.2  29.8 -75.8

-----

The TSS/tether was a spectacular naked eye "flying string" this morning.
The last 1/8th degree or so was bent forward about 15 degrees.  There
was a 6th magnitude bright spot at the bottom (broken) end.

Mike McCants
mike@comshare.com