FSW-1 SatEvo decay predictions

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 11 Mar 1996 21:02:35 +0000

OIG gave me the following elements for FSW-1 a couple of hours ago:

SATNO = 22870                                                                   
Element set number = 1                                                          
1 22870U 93063H   96071.16666667  .05414451  11610-4  12815-3 0  5215           
2 22870  56.4195  19.4485 0089081  81.7041 327.9765 16.31605115117949           
Element set number = 2                                                          
1 22870U 93063H   96070.05220917  .00282782  11337-4  10000-4 0  5155           
2 22870  56.4170  24.9547 0122013  79.4007 282.1560 16.22177171117762           
Element set number = 3                                                          
1 22870U 93063H   96070.36007598  .03366970  11431-4  11285-3 0  5174           
2 22870  56.4132  23.4433 0113208  79.1292 282.2501 16.24343768117818           
Element set number = 4                                                          
1 22870U 93063H   96070.23705214  .03397281  11414-4  11911-3 0  5165           
2 22870  56.4133  24.0491 0115710  78.7531 283.1285 16.23531190117794           
Element set number = 5                                                          
1 22870U 93063H   96070.72896275  .03512377  11496-4  10077-3 0  5197           
2 22870  56.4151  21.6211 0105085  79.3187 281.9297 16.27039808117876           

The 70.23 element has a spurious "ndot" (.00282782) but my SatEvo
program yields the following decay times from the other elements:

                          Elset     Decay 
                          70.23    Mar 12.45
                          70.36    Mar 12.55
                          70.72    Mar 12.68
                          71.16    Mar 12.27

The 71.16 elset shows a residual (OIG-SatEvo) of -50.6 seconds with
respect to the SatEvo predictions I posted yesterday. However a simple
adjustment to ndot in the original (69.55) elset gives residuals of less
than 3 seconds at the equator crossings corresponding to the above four
elements. This adjusted element yields my (final?) predicted decay time
of March 12.35 (ie March 12 at about 08.30).

SatEvo predictions for each remaining orbit follow, based on my
adjustment of the 69.55 elset. Note that I have added the 2nd derivative
of the mean motion (divided by 6) and checksums. I've also changed the
program's name from SATEVO to SatEvo.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H   96071.15838430  .04967879  83555-3  00000-0 0 95124
2 22870  56.4107  19.4935 0085511  80.7041 280.2628 16.31173715117940
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H   96071.21964917  .05129432  92445-3  00000-0 0 95125
2 22870  56.4105  19.1885 0083274  80.8503 280.0908 16.31792182117952
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H   96071.28089031  .05306314  10133-2  00000-0 0 95126
2 22870  56.4103  18.8834 0080977  80.9966 279.9190 16.32431112117966
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H   96071.34210693  .05500968  11167-2  00000-0 0 95122
2 22870  56.4101  18.5781 0078613  81.1429 279.7464 16.33092500117971
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H   96071.40329815  .05716431  12381-2  00000-0 0 95129
2 22870  56.4099  18.2727 0076177  81.2893 279.5729 16.33778673117988
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H   96071.46446299  .05956500  13820-2  00000-0 0 95123
2 22870  56.4097  17.9671 0073662  81.4358 279.3983 16.34492368117990
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H   96071.52560038  .06225992  15547-2  00000-0 0 95121
2 22870  56.4094  17.6613 0071059  81.5824 279.2227 16.35236841118003
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H   96071.58670910  .06531127  17646-2  00000-0 0 95120
2 22870  56.4092  17.3553 0068359  81.7291 279.0459 16.36016008118018
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H   96071.64778777  .06880082  20238-2  00000-0 0 95125
2 22870  56.4090  17.0491 0065548  81.8759 278.8676 16.36834653118024
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H   96071.70883481  .07283864  24121-2  00000-0 0 95122
2 22870  56.4086  16.7427 0062614  82.0228 278.6879 16.37698704118039
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H   96071.76984839  .07757891  28496-2  00000-0 0 95122
2 22870  56.4084  16.4361 0059536  82.1698 278.5057 16.38615659118049
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H   96071.83082636  .08323712  34294-2  00000-0 0 95129
2 22870  56.4081  16.1292 0056292  82.3169 278.3220 16.39595213118052
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H   96071.89176615  .09013469  42235-2  00000-0 0 95126
2 22870  56.4078  15.8221 0052852  82.4642 278.1359 16.40650258118066
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H   96071.95266462  .09877117  53585-2  00000-0 0 95121
2 22870  56.4074  15.5148 0049174  82.6115 277.9446 16.41798536118075
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H   96072.01351781  .10997235  70735-2  00000-0 0 95120
2 22870  56.4071  15.2071 0045200  82.7591 277.7546 16.43065574118080
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H   96072.07432055  .12522058  98711-2  00000-0 0 95123
2 22870  56.4066  14.8991 0040846  82.9068 277.5576 16.44490326118092
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H   96072.13506576  .14750476  14976-1  00000-0 0 95129
2 22870  56.4062  14.5907 0035974  83.0547 277.3544 16.46137344118107
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H   96072.19574291  .18402709  26139-1  00000-0 0 95125
2 22870  56.4056  14.2819 0030335  83.2028 277.1423 16.48127862118112
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H   96072.25633410  .25861022  60704-1  00000-0 0 95122
2 22870  56.4049  13.9725 0023383  83.3512 276.9149 16.50744619118121
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H   96072.31679840  .55215397  99999-1  00000-0 0 95125
2 22870  56.4039  13.6623 0013182  83.5000 276.6501 16.55098184118138

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | Home lat. 55d53m48.7s N | Royal Observatory, Blackford
 Edinburgh   |      long. 3d11m51.2s W |      Hill, Edinburgh EH9 3HJ
 Scotland    | alan@wingar.demon.co.uk |           A.Pickup@roe.ac.uk
             |   +44 (0)131 477 9144   |          +44 (0)131 668 8224