Decay of Bion 11 C and Cosmos 2321 r

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 8 Mar 1997 11:13:10 +0000

Bjoern has drawn attention to the visible, bright and decaying Bion 11
"debris" C object.

The latest OIG elset for this is:
Bion 11 deb C                                    198 x 166 km
1 24706U 96073C   97067.28366537  .02038588  87410-5  27148-3 0  1393
2 24706  62.7981 319.9652 0024237 111.0257 249.3435 16.33933039 11826

A SatEvo analysis using the latest ten elsets (over 1.2 days) suggests
this may decay about March 10.2 and provides the following predicted
elsets:
Bion 11 deb C                                    194 x 164 km
1 24706U 96073C   97067.52836551  .02362332  36817-2  28295-3 0 91390
2 24706  62.7978 318.9548 0022652 111.0753 249.1670 16.35010614 11865
Bion 11 deb C                                    185 x 160 km
1 24706U 96073C   97068.01725980  .03095665  68061-2  28360-3 0 91390
2 24706  62.7969 316.9307 0019096 111.1746 249.0295 16.37642546 11945
Bion 11 deb C                                    172 x 153 km
1 24706U 96073C   97068.50523218  .04667192  17175-1  23195-3 0 91395
2 24706  62.7957 314.9014 0014712 111.2744 248.8828 16.41314900 12028
Bion 11 deb C                                    145 x 136 km
1 24706U 96073C   97069.05240774  .14683437  22412+0  17298-3 0 91395
2 24706  62.7932 312.6084 0007090 111.3874 248.6882 16.49642313 12117

For the "best" prediction, use the elset closest to your time of 
observation.

        -------------------------------------

Cosmos 2321 rocket is also nearing decay, due at about March 12.3 by my
latest estimate.

The current OIG elset is:
Cosmos 2321 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v            243 x 184 km
1 23677U 95052B   97067.23993481  .01360346 -12231-5  48500-3 0  5741
2 23677  82.8973 304.7122 0044247 329.0733  30.8094 16.22261655 80302
...and a couple of my predicted elsets:
Cosmos 2321 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v            233 x 181 km
1 23677U 95052B   97068.04128006  .01585694  12372-2  48287-3 0 95742
2 23677  82.8965 303.8314 0039634 325.7842  33.9608 16.24565253 80436
Cosmos 2321 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v            219 x 176 km
1 23677U 95052B   97069.02582554  .02089756  23665-2  48746-3 0 95749
2 23677  82.8952 302.7446 0033099 321.7264  38.0383 16.28130217 80594

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W  156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:    alan@wingar.demon.co.uk      +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | Royal Observatory: A.Pickup@roe.ac.uk +44 (0)131 668 8224