Decay watch Progress M-38 Soyuz r (and others)

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 15 Mar 1998 16:51:29 +0000

The latest elset for the Soyuz-U final stage which launched 
Progress M-38 is:
Prog M-38 Soyuz r                                214 x 180 km
1 25257U 98015B   98074.55516857  .03579554  12113-4  80414-3 0    74
2 25257  51.6337 160.3530 0025905  82.3215 278.0742 16.28323586   103

A fit through earlier elsets leads to decay at about March 16.85 with an
uncertainty of about 0.2 day. SatEvo predicted elsets:
Prog M-38 Soyuz r                                209 x 177 km
1 25257U 98015B   98074.73917126  .04257335  10650-1  83638-3 0 90070
2 25257  51.6333 159.3290 0023995  83.0856 277.1873 16.29822216   139
Prog M-38 Soyuz r                                199 x 172 km
1 25257U 98015B   98075.04546221  .05575921  19625-1  83246-3 0 90070
2 25257  51.6324 157.6190 0020425  84.3616 275.8713 16.32793675   185
Prog M-38 Soyuz r                                185 x 164 km
1 25257U 98015B   98075.35109903  .08351485  47208-1  81793-3 0 90079
2 25257  51.6313 155.9042 0016090  85.6413 274.5426 16.36925144   237
Prog M-38 Soyuz r                                161 x 148 km
1 25257U 98015B   98075.65573034  .17723739  24099+0  55116-3 0 90078
2 25257  51.6291 154.1818 0010057  86.9267 273.1883 16.44154460   283
Prog M-38 Soyuz r                                120 x 117 km
1 25257U 98015B   98075.83752003 1.51573156  44523+2  52178-3 0 90079
2 25257  51.6256 153.1408 0002606  87.7037 272.3261 16.57993899   319

Other decayers...

Echostar 3 Atlas Centaur rocket (#25005 = 97- 59 B) decayed earlier
today. The latest elset from OIG is:
Echostar 3 Atlas Centaur r                       1501 x 110 km
1 25005U 97059B   98074.20312857  .99999999 -20840-5  13590-1 0  2363
2 25005  25.8674  81.2190 0967992 307.1114  43.1902 14.25886260  4012
I estimate that it survived almost two more orbits with re-entry most 
likely at around 07:56 UTC near 100 deg E longitude, 20 deg S latitude 
as it approached a northbound equator crossing at 146 deg E at 08:09 
UTC.

The Apstar 2R Long March rocket is also nearing decay, which I now 
predict for March 18.7. The latest OIG elset has a crazy negative drag 
term, but the previous one is nearer the mark:
Apstar 2R CZ-3B r                                4986 x 107 km
1 25011U 97062B   98074.45657387  .40162720 -16909-4  24499-2 0  2609
2 25011  23.1985 230.1471 2733782 321.0550  22.1244 10.29770493  3960

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W    156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:      alan@wingar.demon.co.uk       +44 (0)131 477 9144
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