The latest elset for the Soyuz-U final stage which launched Progress M-38 is: Prog M-38 Soyuz r 214 x 180 km 1 25257U 98015B 98074.55516857 .03579554 12113-4 80414-3 0 74 2 25257 51.6337 160.3530 0025905 82.3215 278.0742 16.28323586 103 A fit through earlier elsets leads to decay at about March 16.85 with an uncertainty of about 0.2 day. SatEvo predicted elsets: Prog M-38 Soyuz r 209 x 177 km 1 25257U 98015B 98074.73917126 .04257335 10650-1 83638-3 0 90070 2 25257 51.6333 159.3290 0023995 83.0856 277.1873 16.29822216 139 Prog M-38 Soyuz r 199 x 172 km 1 25257U 98015B 98075.04546221 .05575921 19625-1 83246-3 0 90070 2 25257 51.6324 157.6190 0020425 84.3616 275.8713 16.32793675 185 Prog M-38 Soyuz r 185 x 164 km 1 25257U 98015B 98075.35109903 .08351485 47208-1 81793-3 0 90079 2 25257 51.6313 155.9042 0016090 85.6413 274.5426 16.36925144 237 Prog M-38 Soyuz r 161 x 148 km 1 25257U 98015B 98075.65573034 .17723739 24099+0 55116-3 0 90078 2 25257 51.6291 154.1818 0010057 86.9267 273.1883 16.44154460 283 Prog M-38 Soyuz r 120 x 117 km 1 25257U 98015B 98075.83752003 1.51573156 44523+2 52178-3 0 90079 2 25257 51.6256 153.1408 0002606 87.7037 272.3261 16.57993899 319 Other decayers... Echostar 3 Atlas Centaur rocket (#25005 = 97- 59 B) decayed earlier today. The latest elset from OIG is: Echostar 3 Atlas Centaur r 1501 x 110 km 1 25005U 97059B 98074.20312857 .99999999 -20840-5 13590-1 0 2363 2 25005 25.8674 81.2190 0967992 307.1114 43.1902 14.25886260 4012 I estimate that it survived almost two more orbits with re-entry most likely at around 07:56 UTC near 100 deg E longitude, 20 deg S latitude as it approached a northbound equator crossing at 146 deg E at 08:09 UTC. The Apstar 2R Long March rocket is also nearing decay, which I now predict for March 18.7. The latest OIG elset has a crazy negative drag term, but the previous one is nearer the mark: Apstar 2R CZ-3B r 4986 x 107 km 1 25011U 97062B 98074.45657387 .40162720 -16909-4 24499-2 0 2609 2 25011 23.1985 230.1471 2733782 321.0550 22.1244 10.29770493 3960 Alan -- Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144 Scotland | SatEvo satellite page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/