SatEvo decay list #50
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 21 Mar 1998 19:56:04 +0000
SatEvo decay list #50 (issued 1998 March 21)
This list of satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses
brings me to the half-century - my first SatEvo decay list was
published via the SeeSat-L mailing list on 1996 March 26. In
addition, this is the first to appear on the satellite observers'
newsgroup sci.astro.satellite.visual-observe as well as SeeSat-L.
Information about SeeSat-L is available at
http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
As in my earlier lists, the "Actual" decay dates are my estimates
based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the
object's final days. In some cases, I am able to give an improved
estimate to a decimal part of a day, so that, for example, day 21.43
corresponds to the 21st at about 10:20 UTC. Beware, though, that
they are only estimates and even the most accurate could still be
wrong by one hour or more.
Pegasus debris objects are included here if I anticipate their decay
by April 30. Other objects are included to May 31, although I include
several larger and/or more interesting decayers beyond that date.
Decay dates have moved earlier since my previous list on March 7;
there was a large increase in atmospheric drag around March 11 as
sunspot activity reached its highest levels of the current solar
cycle.
This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via
my SatEvo page at
http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
In addition you can find current elsets for the still-to-decay
objects below, together with other objects of interest, including
Mir, the Iridium satellites and all recently launched/catalogued
objects. These files are mirrored for anonymous FTP access at
ftp://ftp.satellite.eu.org/pub/sat/mirrors/pickup/
and are updated several times daily.
# Designation Name ----- Decay (1998) -----
Predicted Actual?
24078 94- 29 DZ STEP-2 Pegasus deb March 7
24399 94- 29 RC STEP-2 Pegasus deb March 12
25242 98- 10 H Iridium 50 deb March 13
25005 97- 59 B Echostar 3 Centaur r March 15.33
25257 98- 15 B Progress M-38 Soyuz r March 16.87
22855 89- 89 AS COBE deb March 18? Note 1
25011 97- 62 B Apstar 2R CZ-3B r March 18.78
18364 87- 78 F Ariane 3 deb March 20.90
24900 97- 41 F C2345 SOZ ullage r March 21.43
24417 94- 29 RW STEP-2 Pegasus deb March 21
22587 93- 11 E M-3S2 deb March 23.6
22774 89- 89 AK COBE deb March 25
24548 94- 29 WY STEP-2 Pegasus deb March 25
23896 86- 17 KP Mir deb March 26
24874 97- 34 F Iridium 15 Delta r March 30
24079 94- 29 EA STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 1
24353 94- 29 PE STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 3
19297 76-103 F Cosmos 860 deb April 5
24144 94- 29 GT STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 7
24364 94- 29 PR STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 9
25140 86- 17 MK Mir deb April 9
25238 98- 13 B Hot Bird 4 Ariane r April 9
24041 94- 29 CN STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 11
25207 87- 68 AJ Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb April 11
19380 88- 69 D Molniya 1-73 r2 April 15? Note 2
24188 94- 29 JP STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 16
24574 94- 29 YA STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 16
21892 92- 9 C Navstar 24 r2 (PAM-D) April 21 Note 3
24615 94- 29 ZT STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 21
25142 86- 17 ML Mir deb April 21
23193 94- 47 B DBS 2 Atlas Centaur r April 23
20132 88- 98 C Ariane 2 deb C April 25
24970 97- 56 F Iridium 19 Delta r April 25 Note 4
23063 89- 89 BJ COBE deb May 3
25250 87- 68 BT Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb May 12
22943 83- 75 AG Cosmos 1484 deb May 14
23910 86- 17 KY Mir deb May 19
25044 97- 69 F Iridium 43 Delta r May 21
21895 92- 10 C Superbird B1 Ariane r May 23
22852 89- 89 AP COBE deb May 25
21057 91- 3 C Italsat 1 Ariane r May 26
24787 97- 19 B GOES 10 Centaur r May 27
24958 97- 58 C Sputnik-40 May 29
12519 81- 54 E Molniya 3-16 r2 July
24294 96- 50 D Interbol 2 Molniya-M r July
24649 96- 62 B Mars GS Delta 2 r July
25109 97- 82 F Iridium 45 Delta r July
23549 95- 18 A Ofeq 3 August
25174 98- 10 F Iridium 50 Delta r September
Notes
1. #22855 (89- 89 AS = COBE deb). No elsets since March 1 - probably
lost and already decayed.
2. #19380 (88- 69 D = Molniya 1-73 r2). USSPACECOM appeared to lose this
between February 28 and March 13 when they published some suspect elsets
and promptly lost it again. The above decay prediction is little more
than a guess; the perigee is still being forced down strongly by luni-
solar gravitational effects.
3. #21892 (92- 9 C = Navstar 24 r2) was incorrectly identified as
92- 19 C last time.
4. #24970 (97- 56 F = Iridium 19 Delta r) was incorrectly identified
as (another) Iridium 15 Delta r last time.
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo satellite page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/