Decayers from Long March Iridium launch

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 29 Mar 1998 11:41:18 +0100

I've had a request to post my predictions for some of the decaying
objects from the recent launch of Iridiums 51 & 61 by a Long March
rocket.

Here are the latest elsets for these:
Ir 51 CZ-2C r   10.0  3.0  0.0  3.0 d            633 x 177 km
1 25264U 98018C   98087.91130071  .00793668 -13956-5  67452-3 0   143
2 25264  86.3854  12.1521 0336364 159.8538 201.6386 15.54098982   491
Ir 51 CS02 S/D                                   610 x 196 km
1 25265U 98018D   98087.90732351  .00377969 -13936-5  56462-3 0    84
2 25265  86.3097  12.1324 0305247 148.7341 213.2482 15.54693442   462
Ir 51 CSL02 deb                                  433 x 161 km
1 25266U 98018E   98087.58262930  .19967842 -37149-5  71821-2 0   105
2 25266  86.6720  12.3679 0203954 162.2780 198.5828 15.91870589   441
Ir 51 CSL02 deb                                  630 x 171 km
1 25267U 98018F   98086.96592197  .08468522 -20605-5  59208-2 0    88
2 25267  86.0966  12.6113 0338528 160.2705 207.1730 15.55561280   348
Ir 51 CSL02 deb                                  507 x 173 km
1 25268U 98018G   98087.79807401  .14391538 -25051-5  92690-2 0   102
2 25268  86.0969  12.2066 0248484 152.3161 209.1613 15.76506955   471
Ir 51 CZ r deb                                   772 x 208 km
1 25269U 98018H   98085.27749600  .03580344 -15218-5  86986-2 0    29
2 25269  86.5061  13.9314 0410951 167.9533 193.1928 15.25331428    82

Does anyone know what CS02 S/D and CSL02 are?

#25264, the rocket, is predicted to decay about April 23.

#25265, CS02 S/D, may decay around mid-May.

#25266 may have decayed at about 04:00 UTC this morning, March 29.
My final predicted elsets:
Ir 51 CSL02 Deb                                  248 x 159 km
1 25266U 98018E   98088.08101968  .71917350  21755+1  12820-1 0 90079
2 25266  86.6634  12.1109 0067669 158.3600 201.9273 16.25877092   525
Ir 51 CSL02 Deb                                  185 x 145 km
1 25266U 98018E   98088.14232503 2.52659090  41277+2  90730-2 0 90070
2 25266  86.6594  12.0787 0030710 158.0889 202.0427 16.40405449   538

#25267 is probably decaying today, nominally at about 20.00 UTC but with
an uncertainty of 10 hours or more because of the age of the latest
elset. For what it's worth, my prediction ends:
Ir 51 CSL02 Deb                                  275 x 165 km
1 25267U 98018F   98088.73733356  .51771502  83848+0  13385-1 0 90043
2 25267  86.0599  11.6206 0083255 152.5207 207.9219 16.19754084   625
Ir 51 CSL02 Deb                                  238 x 160 km
1 25267U 98018F   98088.79895830  .81449131  30232+1  14083-1 0 90044
2 25267  86.0574  11.5829 0059560 152.2532 208.0657 16.27577227   638

#25268 is predicted to decay at about 19:50 UTC today. My final
predicted elsets:
Ir 51 CSL02 Deb                                  244 x 159 km
1 25268U 98018G   98088.73848043  .76430158  23414+1  13109-1 0 90060
2 25268  86.0843  11.6277 0064898 150.1458 210.2259 16.26616609   629
Ir 51 CSL02 Deb                                  171 x 139 km
1 25268U 98018G   98088.79971821 3.63794273  50000+2  81465-2 0 90060
2 25268  86.0808  11.5899 0024131 149.8762 210.2625 16.44062108   635

#25269 has only two published elsets and nothing recent. The higher
perigee and lower drag implied by its latest elset suggest it might 
last until April 2.

Alan

-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W    156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:      alan@wingar.demon.co.uk       +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo satellite page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/