Decay watch: March 1
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 1 Mar 1999 21:18:24 +0000
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Object: #25644 = 99- 10 C = Raduga 104 Proton platform
Decay prediction:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 28 11:16 Feb 28 21:49 +-7h 48.9 N 163.7 E
SpaceCom Feb 28 15:26 Feb 28 21:37 +-4h 17.7 N 116.6 E
SpaceCom Feb 28 19:22 Feb 28 21:23 +-1h 27.7 N 82.2 E
SpaceCom Mar 1 04:14 Feb 28 21:41 +-40m 31.4 N 129.7 E
SatEvo Feb 28 16:00 Feb 28 20:45 +-3h 11.4 S 57.2 W
SatEvo Mar 1 19:30 Feb 28 20:55 +-40m 40.9 S 46.8 W
Final elset:
Radg 104 Proton plat 145 x 143 km
1 25644U 99010C 99059.83181137 .48706169 12629-4 80575-3 0 77
2 25644 51.6177 223.2524 0001390 77.9431 282.1799 16.48158851 111
Note: The final elset shows it running 2.7 seconds early against the
prediction I posted here yesterday. My analysis places decay following
the southbound equator crossing on this orbit, possibly W of Rio de
Janeiro, Brazil. SpaceCom has decay near perigee on the next orbit
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Object: #25643 = 99- 10 B = Raduga 104 Proton r
Decay prediction:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 28 12:08 Mar 3 03:48 +-2d 32.5 N 23.4 E
SpaceCom Mar 1 03:01 Mar 2 18:53 +-1d 7.3 N 135.4 E
SpaceCom Mar 1 13:07 Mar 2 13:09 +-15h 27.6 N 118.4 E
SatEvo Feb 28 16:15 Mar 3 00:00 +-15h
SatEvo Mar 1 20:00 Mar 2 08:40 +-6h 16.0 N 62.0 W
Latest elset:
Radg 104 Proton r 173 x 169 km
1 25643U 99010B 99060.68897851 .04508631 12344-4 41635-3 0 140
2 25643 51.6403 218.4562 0002934 271.2491 88.8021 16.37989791 257
SatEvo predicted elsets:
Radg 104 Proton r 167 x 164 km
1 25643U 99010B 99060.87186867 .06582877 38703-1 46965-3 0 90149
2 25643 51.6397 217.4239 0002606 272.0190 87.9512 16.40131103 288
Radg 104 Proton r 159 x 156 km
1 25643U 99010B 99061.05449955 .09909554 96429-1 48623-3 0 90140
2 25643 51.6389 216.3895 0002175 272.7905 87.1846 16.43050008 310
Radg 104 Proton r 144 x 142 km
1 25643U 99010B 99061.23670143 .24599720 66819+0 38100-3 0 90149
2 25643 51.6375 215.3518 0001461 273.5646 86.4187 16.48480305 349
Radg 104 Proton r 133 x 132 km
1 25643U 99010B 99061.29725240 .52244076 27979+1 38647-3 0 90147
2 25643 51.6365 215.0045 0001004 273.8237 86.1648 16.52725388 350
Note: The latest elset shows it 51 seconds early against yesterday's
prediction. I predict decay following a northbound equator crossing at
08:35 UTC near 74 deg W (over Columbia) on a track over Caracas,
Venezuela and onwards towards London (08:55). This is considerably
earlier than the predictions by SpaceCom or Harro Zimmer.
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Object: #23907 = 96- 29 B = NOSS 2-3 Titan r
Decay prediction:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SatEvo Feb 27 23:25 Mar 8 18:00 +-2d (not computed)
SatEvo Mar 1 21:00 Mar 9 16:00 +-2d - -
Latest elset:
NOSS 2-3 r 9.8 3.0 0.0 5. 267 x 226 km
1 23907U 96029 B 99059.23715205 .00565333 00000-0 54215-3 0 02
2 23907 63.4587 210.4292 0030978 325.3296 34.7563 16.10192629 08
SatEvo predicted elsets:
NOSS 2-3 r 9.8 3.0 0.0 5. 258 x 220 km
1 23907U 96029 B 99061.03662333 .00782688 26699-3 63089-3 0 90003
2 23907 63.4578 203.4010 0028454 325.3168 34.4980 16.12874528 290
NOSS 2-3 r 9.8 3.0 0.0 5. 252 x 217 km
1 23907U 96029 B 99062.02814913 .00876639 36288-3 63303-3 0 90000
2 23907 63.4573 199.5163 0026927 325.3099 34.5146 16.14515089 454
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Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/