Decay watch: Mar 10 (NOSS r & 2xDelta r)

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Wed, 10 Mar 1999 23:49:54 +0000

Predicted decay times have shifted a little earlier...
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Object: #23863 = 96- 29 G = NOSS 2-3 Titan r

Decay prediction:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Mar  6 07:16     Mar 10 06:14 +-2d         3.1 S    92.0 E
SpaceCom   Mar  9 00:53     Mar 11 14:31 +-2d         9.5 N    45.6 W
SpaceCom   Mar  9 19:40     Mar 11 14:56 +-1d        63.0 S    31.4 E

SatEvo     Mar  4 20:15     Mar 10 09:12 +-1.5d       0        44.4 E
SatEvo     Mar  6 18:00     Mar  9 21:23 +-16h        0       135.8 E
SatEvo     Mar  8 19:00     Mar 11 12:49 +-18h       54.7 N    60.2 W
SatEvo     Mar  9 22:20     Mar 12 01:33 +-14h        0        29.3 W
SatEvo     Mar 10 23:35     Mar 11 22:36 +-6h         0        37.5 E

Latest elset:
NOSS 2-3 r       9.8  3.0  0.0  4.8 v            177 x 167 km
1 23863U 96029G   99069.84711445  .02920333  84913-5  28937-3 0   529
2 23863  63.3993 168.1815 0007495 342.7215  17.4023 16.37648942 74600

SatEvo predicted elsets:
NOSS 2-3 r       9.8  3.0  0.0  4.8 v            173 x 164 km
1 23863U 96029G   99070.03018865  .03828559  11711-1  31972-3 0 90520
2 23863  63.3989 167.4368 0007005 342.7236  17.2526 16.39118192 74630
NOSS 2-3 r       9.8  3.0  0.0  4.8 v            167 x 159 km
1 23863U 96029G   99070.27407145  .04976131  21041-1  32173-3 0 90521
2 23863  63.3982 166.4423 0006234 342.7264  17.2523 16.41237791 74679
NOSS 2-3 r       9.8  3.0  0.0  4.8 v            158 x 151 km
1 23863U 96029G   99070.51758738  .07370971  51882-1  25738-3 0 90523
2 23863  63.3972 165.4458 0005229 342.7293  17.2529 16.44160091 74712
NOSS 2-3 r       9.8  3.0  0.0  4.8 v            144 x 139 km
1 23863U 96029G   99070.76054220  .16220884  27162+0  21250-3 0 90529
2 23863  63.3956 164.4462 0003630 342.7323  17.2554 16.49312598 74754
NOSS 2-3 r       9.8  3.0  0.0  4.8 v            137 x 133 km
1 23863U 96029G   99070.82113342  .22923081  48920+0  20503-3 0 90528
2 23863  63.3949 164.1954 0002991 342.7331  17.2568 16.51643232 74768
NOSS 2-3 r       9.8  3.0  0.0  4.8 v            127 x 125 km
1 23863U 96029G   99070.88162126  .38751322  19713+1  20732-3 0 90525
2 23863  63.3939 163.9441 0002147 342.7339  17.2588 16.55113432 74777

Note: The latest elset shows this running 36 seconds early on
yesterday's prediction. The prediction above uses a new version of
SatEvo which tries to allow for the atmospheric flow transition expected
for an object of this size.
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Object: #25166 = 98-  8 E = Globalstar 1 Delta r

Decay prediction:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Mar  9 20:05     Mar 16 07:53 +-4d        12.6 N     7.3 E

SatEvo     Mar  9 23:05     Mar 16 12:16 +-2.5d
SatEvo     Mar 10 23:20     Mar 15 21:30 +-1.5d

Latest elset:
Gblstr 1 Dlt r   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v            331 x 191 km
1 25166U 98008E   99069.89042819  .01726006  11551-4  11304-2 0  4826
2 25166  52.6634 317.3371 0105344 358.1800   1.8969 16.05014662 58282
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Object: #25472 = 98- 51 F = Iridium 82 Delta r

Decay prediction:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SatEvo     Mar  9 22:45     Mar 15 12:33 +-2d
SatEvo     Mar 10 23:45     Mar 14 23:57 +-1d

Latest elset:
Iridm 82 Delta r 5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            261 x 217 km
1 25472U 98051F   99069.86742969  .01328783 -12920-5  10667-2 0  2703
2 25472  83.4035 196.8031 0033333 357.0207   3.1264 16.13024761 28661
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/