Decay watch: Mar 31 (Ir 11A S/D)
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Wed, 31 Mar 1999 20:36:38 +0100
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Object: #25580 = 98- 74 D = Iridium 11A Smart Dispenser
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Mar 23 10:26 Apr 2 10:53 +-6d 50.3 S 25.0 W
SpaceCom Mar 25 22:20 Apr 1 20:34 +-4d 5.8 S 5.8 E
SpaceCom Mar 29 04:21 Apr 2 02:50 +-2d 78.2 N 70.0 W
SpaceCom Mar 30 00:40 Apr 1 19:21 +-2d 51.7 N 29.2 E
SpaceCom Mar 30 18:18 Apr 1 15:55 +-1d 70.1 S 65.9 E
SpaceCom Mar 31 14:55 Apr 1 14:19 +-14h 75.2 S 65.2 W
SatEvo Mar 23 20:40 Apr 2 00:00 +-2.5d
SatEvo Mar 25 23:40 Apr 2 00:00 +-1.5d
SatEvo Mar 29 21:00 Apr 1 23:26 +-16h 12.1 S 38.7 W
SatEvo Mar 30 19:25 Apr 1 16:03 +-10h 22.1 S 71.8 E
SatEvo Mar 31 19:10 Apr 1 15:07 +-6h 71.1 N 103.4 W
Latest elset:
Irid 11A S/D 4.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 217 x 154 km
1 25580U 98074D 99090.57481146 .04724076 -15910-5 44814-3 0 2192
2 25580 86.2977 144.3026 0047872 114.4592 246.1672 16.32561562 16041
SatEvo prediction:
Irid 11A S/D 4.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 198 x 146 km
1 25580U 98074D 99091.00325591 .07345457 29515-1 33179-3 0 92199
2 25580 86.2960 144.0525 0039779 112.5637 247.8577 16.37632420 16117
Irid 11A S/D 4.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 178 x 137 km
1 25580U 98074D 99091.30830582 .12292383 10048+0 25985-3 0 92193
2 25580 86.2939 143.8730 0031337 111.2039 249.1309 16.43322981 16160
Irid 11A S/D 4.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 143 x 119 km
1 25580U 98074D 99091.55128918 .39134425 13751+1 25646-3 0 92193
2 25580 86.2908 143.7285 0018270 110.1100 250.0866 16.53082281 16209
Irid 11A S/D 4.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 116 x 104 km
1 25580U 98074D 99091.61169375 1.38382132 16778+2 37021-3 0 92195
2 25580 86.2888 143.6921 0009458 109.8345 250.2675 16.61267459 16218
Note: At the epoch of the latest elset, this was running 5 seconds
early against the prediction I posted yesterday. I predict decay on
a southbound (daylight) track that passes W of Hudson Bay and across
the USA at about 97 deg W longitude from Fargo, N Dakota, to Dallas.
SpaceCom's latest decay warning has it decaying over the Antarctic on
the previous orbit. The uncertainty is still several orbit.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/