Decay watch: 2000 Mar 15

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Mar 15 2000 - 11:20:00 PST

  • Next message: Ted Molczan: "Lacrosse 2 elements"

    #26060 = 99- 47 H = Yamal 101 aux motor
    
    Since 23:01 UTC on Mar 14, SpaceCom issued four identical decay warnings
    for this object, predicting its decay for today, Mar 15 03:07 +-11h at
    47.3 N, 54.4 E.
    
    This had a mean motion of 2.8 revs/day when I included it in the SatEvo
    Decay List I posted here on February 26, predicting its decay for March
    20. I was anticipating its rapid decrease in perigee height because of
    luni-solar gravitational effects. In the event, the mean motion was
    uncertain, but probably still below 4 revs/day, only three days ago. The
    final published elset is:
    Yamal 101 aux motor                              3122 x 107 km
    1 26060U 99047H   00074.39636814  .99999999  37788-4  54758-2 0    29
    2 26060  47.5510 178.5207 1886360  61.6918  56.8623 12.15079213  3689
    
    My decay analysis is based on the final four elsets over 15 hours and
    gives a decay at Mar 15 02:57 +-6h near 45.4 N, 25.9 E, in good
    agreement with SpaceCom's estimate. I put the decay just beyond perigee
    while moving NE-bound over Romania, with SpaceCom's point being a little
    further on over western Kazakhstan.
    
    My predicted elsets for the final three orbits:
    Yamal 101 aux motor                              1383 x 88 km
    1 26060U 99047H   00074.97789247 3.02553909  32282+1  33868-2 0 90024
    2 26060  47.4530 176.2556 0910148  63.8413 305.2358 14.47043628  3760
    Yamal 101 aux motor                              1088 x 86 km
    1 26060U 99047H   00075.04554870 3.95650776  68904+1  34853-2 0 90022
    2 26060  47.4365 175.9287 0719242  64.1523 303.0892 14.93521166  3770
    Yamal 101 aux motor                              706 x 84 km
    1 26060U 99047H   00075.11068193 6.43127133  23654+2  38237-2 0 90024
    2 26060  47.4207 175.5884 0459447  64.4764 300.2035 15.57593155  3789
    
    See also  http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
    -----------------------------------------------------------------
    Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe'
    in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org
    http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    



    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Wed Mar 15 2000 - 11:28:57 PST