Decay watch: 2000 Mar 18 #2

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat Mar 18 2000 - 16:22:20 PST

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    #25965 = 99- 62 E = Globalstar 29 Soyuz r1
    
    Latest predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Mar 18 19:48     Mar 19 20:10 +-1d        38.9 N    16.0 E
    
    SatEvo     Mar 18 23:45     Mar 19 22:23 +-5h        23.0 N   109.4 E
    
          It now appears that the elset for 00078.377, the latest one at the
    time of my previous prediction, is a rogue that had skewed the
    prediction. A new analysis including the four further elsets (over 13
    hours) published in the past four hours suggests that the elset had the
    object some three seconds too late at the equator crossing, probably
    because it had a bad eccentricity. Excluding the elset gives an earlier
    decay; indeed, the later elsets are all within two seconds of the
    prediction I had posted yesterday.
          I now put the decay on a SE pass over S China. Earlier in the
    orbit it crosses Europe from S Portugal at 21:59 UTC, to Madrid, Spain
    (22:00), Lyon, France (22:02), Munich, Germany, at 22:03 and Krakow,
    Poland, at 22:05.
          My new prediction for the final revs:
    Globlstr 29 r1   6.0  3.0  0.0  4.5 d   15       165 x 128 km
    1 25965U 99062E   00079.78649193  .27943591  46764+0  31098-3 0 92279
    2 25965  51.9233 102.9702 0028590 128.3647 231.8925 16.47411505 18214
    Globlstr 29 r1   6.0  3.0  0.0  4.5 d   15       150 x 121 km
    1 25965U 99062E   00079.84707224  .37020768  45529+0  25988-3 0 92278
    2 25965  51.9223 102.6254 0022519 128.6167 231.5849 16.51360271 18228
    Globlstr 29 r1   6.0  3.0  0.0  4.5 d   15       129 x 111 km
    1 25965U 99062E   00079.90747436  .75181563  50110+1  26547-3 0 92272
    2 25965  51.9208 102.2793 0013675 128.8698 231.2523 16.57429189 18236
    
    More details at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sat Mar 18 2000 - 16:24:14 PST