#11331 = 79- 32 A = Cosmos 1093 My latest estimate is for decay at Mar 23 17:39 UTC +-5h near 18.0 S, 13.3 E, while northbound just NW of Australia. If it survives, it passes near Jakarta, Indonesia, at 17:42 UTC, E of Hong Kong at 17:49 and E of Beijing, China, at 17:53. The following southbound track takes it over the E USA from Lake Huron at 18:16 to Charleston, S Carolina, at 18:19. My prediction for the final two revs: Cosmos 1093 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.4 v 11 151 x 144 km 1 11331U 79032A 00083.61722543 .25399730 63657+0 52022-3 0 94117 2 11331 81.1827 202.5967 0004767 274.8357 85.1098 16.46949701154423 Cosmos 1093 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.4 v 11 139 x 134 km 1 11331U 79032A 00083.67791950 .47854705 25171+1 49116-3 0 94113 2 11331 81.1813 202.5110 0003538 274.5889 85.3707 16.51084707154432 SpaceCom predicts a later decay, at Mar 23 21:56 +-16h at 55.2 S, 39.5 E. #15977 = 85- 74 A = Molniya 1-64 The final published elset is: Molniya 1-64 839 x 94 km 1 15977U 85074A 00082.11078701 .99999999 71988-5 17209-2 0 1799 2 15977 61.9337 136.1460 0544269 268.8111 85.0592 15.33209864 53837 SpaceCom reports decay at Mar 22 05:36 +-7m at 39.1 S, 153.1 W, while I get Mar 22 05:29 -10m+90m at 52.2 S, 169.6 W. This kept to within a minute of my SatEvo prediction for the latter half of the 21st, but then drifted sharply later so that the eventual decay came later than SpaceCom or I anticipated. Once again, it is tempting to suggest that the Molniya's drag coefficient dropped sharply, perhaps at the perigee at about 23:05 UTC, when the stresses caused it to shed one or more of its "wings". I now calculate the following elsets for its final revs: Molniya 1-64 832 x 87 km 1 15977U 85074A 00082.11076741 1.86501428 17844+1 15767-2 0 91796 2 15977 61.9337 136.1461 0544285 268.8111 84.9510 15.35478789 53830 Molniya 1-64 675 x 86 km 1 15977U 85074A 00082.17556616 2.37350187 39623+1 16416-2 0 91798 2 15977 61.9256 135.9021 0436025 268.8389 86.1640 15.62478274 53846 Molniya 1-64 466 x 84 km 1 15977U 85074A 00082.23916341 3.81882714 13442+2 18733-2 0 91792 2 15977 61.9152 135.6516 0287347 268.8676 87.8394 15.99878930 53855 Like SpaceCom, I think decay is most likely a little beyond perigee on the penultimate of these orbits, while it was NE-bound over the S Pacific. There is a possibility, though, that it survived to reenter on the approach to the following perigee at 06:52 UTC. #20919 = 90- 93 B = Inmarsat 2-1 Delta 2 rocket SpaceCom is predicting this decay for Mar 25 20:33 +-2d at 23.6 N, 34.4 E while I calculate Mar 25 23:46 +-19h. The latest elset is: Inmarsat 2-1 r 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.0 v 14 261 x 215 km 1 20919U 90093B 00082.64219889 .01586688 -12792-4 11260-2 0 5872 2 20919 24.7094 82.5584 0035440 105.1690 255.2707 16.13256671511967 More details at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ Alan -- Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750 Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ ----------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe' in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Wed Mar 22 2000 - 15:03:39 PST