From the latest updates to my Decay Watch page...
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Object: #19733 = 88-115 D = Molniya 1-74 r2
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Mar 24 00:39 Mar 27 13:49 +-2d 60.1 S 21.2 E
SatEvo Mar 25 15:40 Mar 30 11:13 +-2d
Latest elset:
Molniya 1-74 r2 8005 x 82 km
1 19733U 88115D 01084.38203402 .19975019 32106-5 60752-3 0 6494
2 19733 62.3634 171.3737 3800615 255.3291 300.7541 8.16064191 93400
Note: See my Decay Watch page for a very uncertain prediction.
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Object: #22233 = 92- 79 C = GPS 2-16 r2 (PAM-D)
Final decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Mar 24 15:42 Mar 24 14:54 +-7h 10.3 N 92.5 E
SatEvo Mar 24 23:20 Mar 24 17:44 +-4h 16.0 N 38.4 E
Final elset:
GPS 2-16 r2 3.0 1.5 0.0 6.5 d 3.1 389 x 134 km
1 22233U 92079C 01083.09712814 .19346464 -56535-7 95576-3 0 8301
2 22233 34.4786 335.8794 0191982 119.9595 242.0710 16.04537821209109
Note: The final elset shows it running 5 sec late against the prediction
I posted on the 23rd. My estimate for the decay is much later than
SpaceCom's and places it southbound close to the Red Sea. My predicted
elsets for the final two revs are:
GPS 2-16 r2 3.0 1.5 0.0 6.5 d 3.1 240 x 124 km
1 22233U 92079C 01083.65262205 .49596796 81976+0 84170-3 0 98300
2 22233 34.4724 331.8424 0087893 125.8309 234.9888 16.33943185209192
GPS 2-16 r2 3.0 1.5 0.0 6.5 d 3.1 204 x 120 km
1 22233U 92079C 01083.71354525 .76322115 26146+1 86601-3 0 98306
2 22233 34.4710 331.3864 0064306 126.4941 234.1000 16.41293304209203
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Object: #23029 = 94- 16 C = GPS 2-24 r2 (PAM-D)
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Mar 24 18:45 Mar 27 17:40 +-2d 15.2 N 131.4 E
SatEvo Mar 25 15:35 Mar 27 20:54 +-16h
Latest elset:
GPS 2-24 r2 3.0 1.5 0.0 6.5 d 3.1 574 x 144 km
1 23029U 94016C 01084.35184560 .06816585 13246-5 86759-3 0 2497
2 23029 34.5953 214.1517 0319269 29.0044 332.8086 15.70066136173485
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
Note: This enters eclipse near southern apex at 35 deg S in the
evening and leaves eclipse while northbound near 28 deg N before
dawn.
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Object: #23951 = 96- 40 D = Arabsat 2A Spelda
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Mar 25 09:54 Mar 25 16:06 +-21h 6.7 S 135.5 W
SatEvo Mar 25 15:30 Mar 25 11:33 +-5h 6.8 S 61.6 W
Latest elset:
Arabsat 2A Spelda 519 x 144 km
1 23951U 96040D 01083.81131013 .21010714 -31961-4 26854-2 0 5993
2 23951 6.8772 39.7097 0279449 223.0454 115.4976 15.79832366 72958
SatEvo prediction:
..(ends)
Arabsat 2A Spelda 227 x 122 km
1 23951U 96040D 01084.43718588 1.28956456 67275+1 19040-2 0 95990
2 23951 6.8747 34.3398 0079980 233.6691 125.5899 16.36616957 73051
Note: This appears to have been lost for 10 days until it was
recovered on March 23 - it may now have been lost again. I show
that this may have decayed already, perhaps over Brazil.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sun Mar 25 2001 - 06:57:00 PST