Decay watch: 2002 March 15

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Mar 15 2002 - 15:58:53 EST

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    Here is a summary of the latest updates to my Decay Watch page, 
    including the first notice for Cosmos 1658 rocket. Check the page for 
    predicted elsets.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #15811 = 85- 45 D = Cosmos 1658 r
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Mar 15 10:32     Mar 18 10:47 +-2d        57.6 S    11.3 E
    SatEvo     Mar 15 20:50     Mar 18 17:28 +-1.2d
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1658 r                                    2792 x 88 km
    1 15811U 85045D   02074.38745524  .27003875  11447-4  47197-3 0  7957
    2 15811  62.6210  51.5660 1729311 247.9307 293.4243 12.56011500 60828
    
    Note: This enters eclipse while southbound near 50 deg N at ~01h
    local time. Eclipse exit occurs southbound near 30 deg S at ~05h.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #19189 = 88- 44 A = Molniya 3-32
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Mar 15 14:02     Mar 15 12:51 +-7m        56.1 S    39.2 E
    SatEvo     Mar 15 20:20     Mar 15 12:54 +-10m       50.2 S    50.3 E
    
    Final elset:
    Molniya 3-32                                     435 x 67 km
    1 19189U 88044A   02074.51475350  .99999999  87825-5  75316-3 0   437
    2 19189  62.3792  95.5057 0277362 274.1539 252.7786 16.08578868 67285
    
    Note: It seems certain that this decayed soon after perigee on the
    orbit represented by the final elset. This puts it NE-bound over the
    far-SW Indian Ocean.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23742 = 95- 69 B = Galaxy 3R Atlas 2A Centaur rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Mar 15 16:52     Mar 16 04:04 +-11h       13.0 N    97.1 W
    SatEvo     Mar 15 20:35     Mar 16 03:45 +-6h        26.7 N   154.8 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Galaxy 3R Centaur r                              596 x 124 km
    1 23742U 95069B   02074.41909722  .25859493 -80800-5  91350-3 0  2951
    2 23742  26.5698 349.7284 0350384  57.2297 105.3154 15.69781138 95910
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    (..ends)
    Galaxy 3R Centaur r                              300 x 112 km
    1 23742U 95069B   02075.08003148  .81830880  13625+1  94561-3 0 92954
    2 23742  26.5601 344.6864 0142833  65.6853 295.7997 16.25040228 96024
    Galaxy 3R Centaur r                              237 x 108 km
    1 23742U 95069B   02075.14113412 1.31839152  64105+1  10401-2 0 92953
    2 23742  26.5575 344.1947 0097970  66.5100 294.5164 16.37452984 96030
    
    Note: Once again there is a dearth of recent elsets. I continue to show
    this decaying while westbound a little to the north of the Hawaiian Is.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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