Decay watch: 2002 March 23

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat Mar 23 2002 - 03:12:28 EST

  • Next message: Alan Pickup: "Decay watch: 2002 March 23 #2"

    There is a chance that the Progress rocket will decay over the USA - 
    there are certainly sighting opportunities over the coming hours. This
    is a full copy of my latest update on this from my Decay watch page:
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27396 = 02- 13 B = Progress M1-8 Soyuz-U rocket
    
    Notice prepared: 2002 Mar 23 07:55 UTC
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Mar 22 01:30     Mar 22 22:25 +-12h        8.3 S   171.4 W
    SpaceCom   Mar 23 03:16     Mar 23 13:47 +-6h        33.9 N   115.8 W
    SpaceCom   Mar 23 07:20     Mar 23 13:32 +-4h        48.0 N   161.4 E
    
    SatEvo     Mar 22 20:00     Mar 23 15:23 +-6h         3.9 S   106.3 W
    SatEvo     Mar 23 07:55     Mar 23 13:24 +-2h        41.1 N   144.3 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Progress M1-8 Soyuz-U r                          178 x 156 km
    1 27396U 02013B   02082.24525607  .10462197  12360-4  73488-3 0   121
    2 27396  51.6182 124.6673 0016562  96.2268 264.0336 16.39673215   236
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Progress M1-8 Soyuz-U r                          166 x 148 km
    1 27396U 02013B   02082.36700139  .17498671  22822+0  59051-3 0 90120
    2 27396  51.6172 123.9775 0014072  96.7420 263.4181 16.43239145   257
    Progress M1-8 Soyuz-U r                          159 x 143 km
    1 27396U 02013B   02082.42776699  .23279116  46519+0  49979-3 0 90126
    2 27396  51.6165 123.6318 0012393  97.0003 263.1406 16.45675678   269
    Progress M1-8 Soyuz-U r                          148 x 135 km
    1 27396U 02013B   02082.48842411  .37261145  13706+1  44339-3 0 90124
    2 27396  51.6156 123.2852 0010001  97.2593 262.8544 16.49199078   277
    Progress M1-8 Soyuz-U r                          122 x 116 km
    1 27396U 02013B   02082.54889029 2.17790592  50000+2  78130-3 0 90125
    2 27396  51.6139 122.9371 0004739  97.5193 262.5345 16.57645773   284
    
    Note: It was 10 sec early on yesterday's prediction at the epoch of
    the latest elset. I now predict that this might re-enter over N Japan
    as it approaches northern apex on the last predicted rev above. If it
    stays longer in orbit, there is a pass down the length of California
    that takes it from Sacramento at 13:41 UTC to Yuma, Arizona, at 13:43.
    It should also be visible from the USA on earlier orbits.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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