Decay watch: 2002 March 24

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sun Mar 24 2002 - 10:32:38 EST

  • Next message: Leo Barhorst: "Obs Mar 22+23"

    Yesterday's decay of the Progress rocket kept close to prediction, 
    though I know of no sightings on its final revs. Here is a summary of my 
    updated Decay Watch page - check there for predicted elsets.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #15679 = 85- 35 C = GStar 1 Ariane 3 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Mar 24 05:37     Mar 27 02:27 +-2d         2.6 S   119.8 W
    SatEvo     Mar 24 15:00     Mar 27 03:55 +-20h
    
    Latest elset:
    GStar 1 Ariane 3 r                               888 x 142 km
    1 15679U 85035C   02083.54109739  .09904230 -28053-4  15942-2 0  1333
    2 15679   6.5181 144.0892 0541111 254.1632  99.9363 15.17015300221686
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25018 = 97- 64 B = Lacrosse 3 Titan 4 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Mar 24 08:50     Mar 26 07:56 +-1d        35.6 S   154.5 E
    SatEvo     Mar 24 15:15     Mar 26 07:11 +-12h       41.5 N     7.8 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Lacrosse 3 r    10.0  3.5  0.0  3.5 v   26       217 x 189 km
    1 25018U 97064B   02083.57777958  .06145854  11229-4  17875-2 0   791
    2 25018  56.9820 257.0880 0021033 288.5483  71.3285 16.26052126240187
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27393 = 02- 12 C = GRACE 1 Briz-KM rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Mar 24 09:21     Mar 26 17:00 +-1d        38.8 N    84.2 W
    SatEvo     Mar 24 15:25     Mar 27 11:30 +-1d
    
    Latest elset:
    GRACE 1 Briz-KM r                                361 x 135 km
    1 27393U 02012C   02083.54255472  .03548538 -11056-5  17350-3 0   294
    2 27393  89.0063 353.4619 0170436 234.4917 124.0440 16.09593418  1141
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27396 = 02- 13 B = Progress M1-8 Soyuz-U rocket
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
    SpaceCom   Mar 23 13:29     Mar 23 13:26 +-7m        47.0 N   158.0 E
    SatEvo     Mar 24 12:00     Mar 23 13:22 +-12m       36.7 N   137.4 E
    
    Final elset:
    Progress M1-8 Soyuz-U r                          146 x 133 km
    1 27396U 02013B   02082.48834518  .36448153  12664-4  38621-3 0   144
    2 27396  51.6100 123.2612 0009544  94.4683 265.7452 16.49950981   277
    
    Note: The final elset has this running 8 sec early against the
    prediction I had posted a few hours earlier. My estimate puts the decay
    northbound over Japan, a little before SpaceCom's time.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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