Decay watch: 2003 March 2

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sun Mar 02 2003 - 06:04:53 EST

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    The following is a summary of the latest updates to my Decay Watch page, 
    including the first notice for a decaying low-inclination Ariane rocket 
    and corrected eclipse circumstances for Iridium 9.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #24838 = 97- 30 C = Iridium 9
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Feb 27 18:30     Mar 12 10:43 +-8d        64.1 N     7.1 W
    SatEvo     Mar  2 11:00     Mar 11 12:07 +-3.2d
    
    Latest elset:
    Iridium 9 tum    4.0  1.8  0.0  6.5 d   10       293 x 274 km
    1 24838U 97030C   03061.23718213  .00783227  26920-3  18527-2 0  2787
    2 24838  86.4174 320.0614 0014067  46.5246 313.7201 15.96640660306603
    
    SatEvo prediction: None at this time.
    
    Note: My previous update reported incorrect data for the eclipse
    entry and exit circumstances of this object. In fact, this enters
    eclipse southbound near 78 deg N at ~21h local time. Eclipse exit
    occurs southbound near 65 deg S at ~23h local time.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #24847 = 97- 31 B = Intelsat 802 Ariane 44P rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Mar  2 00:03     Mar  3 21:56 +-1d         1.1 N    82.9 W
    SatEvo     Mar  2 10:50     Mar  3 23:42 +-13h        5.3 S    50.8 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Intelsat 802 Ariane 44P r                        1111 x 121 km
    1 24847U 97031B   03061.19644389  .21599410 -26076-4  10006-2 0   738
    2 24847   6.7671 248.9465 0707735 177.0691 183.9291 14.84228913 74301
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    (ends)
    Intelsat 802 Ariane 44P r                        380 x 110 km
    1 24847U 97031B   03062.88649728  .97329972  14972+1  12325-2 0 90736
    2 24847   6.7608 235.7799 0204280 203.1271 155.9403 16.10698346 74561
    Intelsat 802 Ariane 44P r                        305 x 108 km
    1 24847U 97031B   03062.94817995 1.40087086  41980+1  13476-2 0 90739
    2 24847   6.7602 235.2390 0149987 204.1977 155.0904 16.24902204 74577
    
    Note: I predict that this low-inclination object will decay over
    Brazil following perigee on the final predicted orbit above.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo Home Page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
    
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