Decay watch: 2003 March 4

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue Mar 04 2003 - 16:31:37 EST

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    Updates from my Decay Watch page:
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #24838 = 97- 30 C = Iridium 9
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Mar  4 14:06     Mar 11 02:58 +-4d        25.7 S   102.1 E
    SatEvo     Mar  4 21:20     Mar 10 21:08 +-2d
    
    Latest elset:
    Iridium 9 tum    4.0  1.8  0.0  6.5 d   10       278 x 264 km
    1 24838U 97030C   03063.61580729  .00976083  47391-3  17997-2 0  2880
    2 24838  86.4224 318.7989 0010741  45.2432 315.0207 16.01229516306988
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #24847 = 97- 31 B = Intelsat 802 Ariane 44P rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Mar  3 22:40     Mar  3 21:44 +-7m         4.8 N   116.8 W
    SatEvo     Mar  4 21:00     Mar  3 20:40 +-90m        5.2 S     5.3 W
    
    Final elset:
    Intelsat 802 Ariane 44P r                        415 x 127 km
    1 24847U 97031B   03062.76005825  .84620690 -33760-4  29481-2 0   872
    2 24847   6.7804 236.7289 0216461 204.4926 154.9818 16.01162448 74545
    
    Note: My predicted final elsets for this are:
    Intelsat 802 Ariane 44P r                        325 x 113 km
    1 24847U 97031B   03062.82184616 1.43858911  41973+1  18819-2 0 90872
    2 24847   6.7798 236.1909 0161041 205.5573 153.6376 16.20145532 74555
    Intelsat 802 Ariane 44P r                        179 x 106 km
    1 24847U 97031B   03062.88304212 7.41951575  50000+2  37265-2 0 90876
    2 24847   6.7788 235.6431 0055751 206.6415 153.0710 16.48955314 74569
    In fact, the very high drag in the second of these elsets leads me to
    suspect that this may have already decayed by that epoch, perhaps
    south of Nigeria following the previous perigee. It is possible that
    it did survive to decay on my final predicted rev, as SCC suggests.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo Home Page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
    
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