USA 186 search elements

From: Ted Molczan via Seesat-l <seesat-l_at_satobs.org>
Date: Sat, 12 Mar 2016 16:05:38 -0500
Leo Barhorst, Marco Langbroek and Alberto Rango have reported USA 186 (05042A / 28888) a no-show on a pass predicted for
2016 Mar 12 near 18:59 UTC.

The last known observation was on Mar 09 UTC. The following search elements are based on my guess that a re-boost was
performed on Mar 10 UTC.

The following pair of elements are based on manoeuvre at about the earliest perigee within the historical range of
manoeuvre times I have on file. They bracket my guess regarding the new mean motion:

                                                         259 X 430 km
1 70011U          16070.38291667  .00056000  00000-0  22510-3 0    02
2 70011  96.8989 109.6991 0127500  72.3998   2.5331 15.74000000    09
                                                         258 X 453 km
1 70012U          16070.38291668  .00056000  00000-0  22510-3 0    04
2 70012  96.8989 109.6991 0144500  72.3998   2.5331 15.70000000    05

The following pair are similar to the above, but for what I guess would be the latest likely time of manoeuvre:

                                                         259 X 430 km
1 70021U          16070.76361111  .00056000  00000-0  22510-3 0    07
2 70021  96.8989 110.0782 0127500  70.9339   2.7370 15.74000000    02
                                                         258 X 453 km
1 70022U          16070.76361112  .00056000  00000-0  22510-3 0    09
2 70022  96.8989 110.0782 0144500  70.9339   2.7370 15.70000000    08

There is a significant possibility that the manoeuvre occurred outside the above limits.

Happy hunting!
Ted Molczan


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Received on Sat Mar 12 2016 - 15:06:14 UTC

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