SatEvo decay list #4 (issued 1996 May 4) Here are my updated SatEvo decay predictions. Again, the "Actual?" decay times are estimated from the final available elements. With low drag conditions recently, dates have tended to slip. # Designation Name ------ Decay ------ Predicted Actual? 15489 85- 7 F SL-12 r aux motor April 20.4 23509 95- 8 E Cosmos 2306 deb April 24.5 23073 88- 89 BU Cobe deb April 25 (see note) 23803 96- 13 B Polar r May 1.86 22479 92- 93 FU SL-16 deb May 5.9 20013 77-121 BV Cosmos 970 deb May 6.4 23336 94- 72 A Cosmos 2293 May 17 23850 96- 23 C Priroda deb May 18 23849 96- 23 B Priroda r May 21 23559 86- 17 JF GFZ 1 deb May 23 13786 83- 6 B N-2 r1 May 26 11791 80- 32 B Atlas F r May 27 23459 94- 87 E SL-12 r aux motor May 29 20042 89- 41 C Ariane 44L r June 14 23462 95- 1 B Atlas 2AS Cent r June 23 23583 95- 20 C Progress-M 27 deb July 1 23508 95- 8 D Cosmos 2306 deb July 8 23557 86- 17 JD GFZ 1 deb July 10 Notes (1) Object #23073 = 88- 89 BU (COBE deb) was predicted to decay at about April 25, but was lost more than a week prior to this date. (2) Object #18872 = 77- 65 FW (Delta 1 deb) was predicted to decay at about May 25. However, the catalog number and designation became attached to a different object between successive elsets (dated 96111.25 and 96115.39). The "new" #18872 has a very different orbit (revs/day 15.01 vs 15.61 for the "old" one) and is not about to decay. Alan -- Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144 Scotland | Royal Observatory: A.Pickup@roe.ac.uk +44 (0)131 668 8224