SatEvo decay list #4
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 4 May 1996 09:56:55 +0100
SatEvo decay list #4 (issued 1996 May 4)
Here are my updated SatEvo decay predictions. Again, the "Actual?"
decay times are estimated from the final available elements. With
low drag conditions recently, dates have tended to slip.
# Designation Name ------ Decay ------
Predicted Actual?
15489 85- 7 F SL-12 r aux motor April 20.4
23509 95- 8 E Cosmos 2306 deb April 24.5
23073 88- 89 BU Cobe deb April 25 (see note)
23803 96- 13 B Polar r May 1.86
22479 92- 93 FU SL-16 deb May 5.9
20013 77-121 BV Cosmos 970 deb May 6.4
23336 94- 72 A Cosmos 2293 May 17
23850 96- 23 C Priroda deb May 18
23849 96- 23 B Priroda r May 21
23559 86- 17 JF GFZ 1 deb May 23
13786 83- 6 B N-2 r1 May 26
11791 80- 32 B Atlas F r May 27
23459 94- 87 E SL-12 r aux motor May 29
20042 89- 41 C Ariane 44L r June 14
23462 95- 1 B Atlas 2AS Cent r June 23
23583 95- 20 C Progress-M 27 deb July 1
23508 95- 8 D Cosmos 2306 deb July 8
23557 86- 17 JD GFZ 1 deb July 10
Notes (1) Object #23073 = 88- 89 BU (COBE deb) was predicted to decay
at about April 25, but was lost more than a week prior to
this date.
(2) Object #18872 = 77- 65 FW (Delta 1 deb) was predicted to
decay at about May 25. However, the catalog number and
designation became attached to a different object between
successive elsets (dated 96111.25 and 96115.39). The "new"
#18872 has a very different orbit (revs/day 15.01 vs 15.61
for the "old" one) and is not about to decay.
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | Royal Observatory: A.Pickup@roe.ac.uk +44 (0)131 668 8224