SatEvo decay list #4

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 4 May 1996 09:56:55 +0100

SatEvo decay list #4  (issued 1996 May 4)

Here are my updated SatEvo decay predictions. Again, the "Actual?" 
decay times are estimated from the final available elements. With
low drag conditions recently, dates have tended to slip.

   #    Designation    Name             ------ Decay ------
                                        Predicted   Actual?

 15489   85-  7 F   SL-12 r aux motor               April 20.4
 23509   95-  8 E   Cosmos 2306 deb                 April 24.5
 23073   88- 89 BU  Cobe deb                        April 25 (see note)
 23803   96- 13 B   Polar r                         May    1.86
 22479   92- 93 FU  SL-16 deb           May    5.9
 20013   77-121 BV  Cosmos 970 deb      May    6.4
 23336   94- 72 A   Cosmos 2293         May   17
 23850   96- 23 C   Priroda deb         May   18
 23849   96- 23 B   Priroda r           May   21
 23559   86- 17 JF  GFZ 1 deb           May   23
 13786   83-  6 B   N-2 r1              May   26
 11791   80- 32 B   Atlas F r           May   27
 23459   94- 87 E   SL-12 r aux motor   May   29
 20042   89- 41 C   Ariane 44L r        June  14
 23462   95-  1 B   Atlas 2AS Cent r    June  23
 23583   95- 20 C   Progress-M 27 deb   July   1
 23508   95-  8 D   Cosmos 2306 deb     July   8
 23557   86- 17 JD  GFZ 1 deb           July  10

Notes (1) Object #23073 = 88- 89 BU (COBE deb) was predicted to decay
         at about April 25, but was lost more than a week prior to
         this date.

      (2) Object #18872 = 77- 65 FW (Delta 1 deb) was predicted to
         decay at about May 25. However, the catalog number and
         designation became attached to a different object between
         successive elsets (dated 96111.25 and 96115.39). The "new"
         #18872 has a very different orbit (revs/day 15.01 vs 15.61
         for the "old" one) and is not about to decay.

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W  156m asl
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