Decay update: IAP & 80- 32 B

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Tue, 21 May 1996 22:34:21 +0100

I may be mad for tackling this, but the Inflatable Antenna (#23872 = 96-
32 C) appears to be heading for decay at about May 22.38 by my SatEvo
analysis. 

The latest OIG element is:
IAP
1 23872U 96032C   96142.61791612  .04923902  64422-1  81640-2 0   111
2 23872  39.0139 258.9458 0009925 305.8700  54.1255 16.08046672   358

My predicted elements (based on above with "improved" n and ndot):
IAP 
1 23872U 96032C   96143.05136238  .16604553  14904+0  94965-2 0 90119
2 23872  39.0116 255.9963 0006500 309.7014  50.2412 16.17900318   424
IAP 
1 23872U 96032C   96143.23607905  .33096078  60925+0  95324-2 0 90113
2 23872  39.0098 254.7226 0004274 311.3561  48.6069 16.26358033   457
IAP 
1 23872U 96032C   96143.35842690  .99999999  44289+2  92730-2 0 90118
2 23872  39.0059 253.8660 0001543 312.4690  47.5180 16.42164322   475

          ---------------------------------------------

OIG's latest OIG element for object #11791 = 80- 32 B (Atlas F R) is: 
80- 32 B
1 11791U 80032B   96142.18163644 +.06322808 +83244-5 +15730-3 0 05357
2 11791 062.9557 286.9609 0173151 275.1508 082.9977 16.13137910385854
This is 4.4s late with respect to the predicted orbit evolution I 
posted yesterday.

I now expect decay at about May 22.77 and predict the following
elements meantime:
80- 32 B
1 11791U 80032B   96143.04601349  .08886394  14004-1  17231-3 0 95350
2 11791  62.9513 283.4828 0118697 275.2801  83.3662 16.26816084385993
80- 32 B
1 11791U 80032B   96143.53635190  .16424346  16206+0  24359-3 0 95352
2 11791  62.9477 281.4758 0074231 275.3554  83.7980 16.37808800386079
80- 32 B
1 11791U 80032B   96143.71915402  .50222405  21488+1  49716-3 0 95352
2 11791  62.9450 280.7169 0035442 275.3840  84.2117 16.47421883386102

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W  156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:    alan@wingar.demon.co.uk      +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | Royal Observatory: A.Pickup@roe.ac.uk +44 (0)131 668 8224


-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W  156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:    alan@wingar.demon.co.uk      +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | Royal Observatory: A.Pickup@roe.ac.uk +44 (0)131 668 8224