Re: How close to decay?
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Wed, 7 May 1997 19:30:59 +0100
In message <1.5.4.16.19970507093557.0e0fa468@mail.utexas.edu>, Ed Cannon
<ecannon@mail.utexas.edu> writes
>The following three objects, which I don't think I've seen in decay
>predictions, have pass predictions below 320 km (200 miles) over
>Austin in the next week. I wonder how close to decaying they are.
>
>13985 Satcom 6 Rk 83 30B
>1 13985U 83030B 97125.59090769 +.00012750 -62377-5 +24813-3 0 06421
>2 13985 025.3439 253.2129 1146625 004.2044 356.7184 13.29029674620710
A straight extrapolation from the average drag over the first four
months gives this a lifetime of about 25 years. To last this long,
however, it would have to survive the increased atmospheric density
during two solar maxima (due in perhaps 2000 and 2011) - I don't think
it will. My guess is for decay around 2010.
>
>21892 GPS 2-12 PKM 92 9C
>1 21892U 92009C 97127.17395889 .00480177 52067-6 11916-2 0 8271
>2 21892 34.4943 38.7019 3092378 81.5328 311.8759 9.41525898113255
>
An easier one this. Decay in 1998 April, give or take a month or
three. :-)
>22583 GPS 2-19 Rk 93 17C
>1 22583U 93017C 97125.69345198 +.00012018 +23404-5 +19695-3 0 01321
>2 22583 036.1726 227.8344 0462079 040.4307 322.9820 14.83150613218383
>
My guess is year 2000.
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | Royal Observatory: A.Pickup@roe.ac.uk +44 (0)131 668 8224