Re: #24763 decay & geomagnetic storm
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Fri, 16 May 1997 20:11:30 +0100
OIG's latest elset for the decaying Cosmos 2340 SL-6 platform is:
Cosmos 2340 SL-6 plat 239 x 167 km
1 24763U 97015C 97136.49418461 .03773925 84990-5 75834-3 0 1260
2 24763 62.8447 138.8106 0054748 117.0112 243.6403 16.26312625 5723
This shows it running 11.5 seconds late with respect to the SatEvo
prediction I posted this morning. This is very much in line with Ron
Lee's observation near that time, and it is what I had in mind when I
said that...
>assuming that the atmosphere will settle down after the storm, I expect
>the object to begin to run late and for the decay to be delayed a
>little.
In deriving the start elset for the following SatEvo evolution I have
attempted to factor in a decrease in the atmospheric density as the
effect of the storm subsided. However, there is no such allowance during
the evolution itself, so it is possible that #24763 will again tend to
run late on prediction and that decay may be postponed further from the
implied time of May 17.9.
Predicted elsets:
Cosmos 2340 SL-6 plat 223 x 163 km
1 24763U 97015C 97136.92408223 .04674490 11313-1 72868-3 0 91269
2 24763 62.8436 137.0541 0045801 117.0912 243.3751 16.29955833 5790
Cosmos 2340 SL-6 plat 212 x 160 km
1 24763U 97015C 97137.16928526 .05756342 19355-1 74024-3 0 91267
2 24763 62.8427 136.0478 0039807 117.1371 243.2689 16.32490924 5830
Cosmos 2340 SL-6 plat 199 x 156 km
1 24763U 97015C 97137.41405767 .07775702 38581-1 70205-3 0 91264
2 24763 62.8417 135.0392 0032748 117.1831 243.1502 16.35745268 5875
Cosmos 2340 SL-6 plat 180 x 149 km
1 24763U 97015C 97137.65824205 .12906965 12573+0 55805-3 0 91265
2 24763 62.8401 134.0273 0023694 117.2295 243.0120 16.40555103 5913
Updates to follow...
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | Royal Observatory: A.Pickup@roe.ac.uk +44 (0)131 668 8224