Re: #24763 decay & geomagnetic storm

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Fri, 16 May 1997 20:11:30 +0100

OIG's latest elset for the decaying Cosmos 2340 SL-6 platform is:

Cosmos 2340 SL-6 plat                            239 x 167 km
1 24763U 97015C   97136.49418461  .03773925  84990-5  75834-3 0  1260
2 24763  62.8447 138.8106 0054748 117.0112 243.6403 16.26312625  5723

This shows it running 11.5 seconds late with respect to the SatEvo
prediction I posted this morning. This is very much in line with Ron
Lee's observation near that time, and it is what I had in mind when I
said that...
>assuming that the atmosphere will settle down after the storm, I expect
>the object to begin to run late and for the decay to be delayed a
>little.

In deriving the start elset for the following SatEvo evolution I have
attempted to factor in a decrease in the atmospheric density as the
effect of the storm subsided. However, there is no such allowance during
the evolution itself, so it is possible that #24763 will again tend to
run late on prediction and that decay may be postponed further from the
implied time of May 17.9.

Predicted elsets:
Cosmos 2340 SL-6 plat                            223 x 163 km
1 24763U 97015C   97136.92408223  .04674490  11313-1  72868-3 0 91269
2 24763  62.8436 137.0541 0045801 117.0912 243.3751 16.29955833  5790
Cosmos 2340 SL-6 plat                            212 x 160 km
1 24763U 97015C   97137.16928526  .05756342  19355-1  74024-3 0 91267
2 24763  62.8427 136.0478 0039807 117.1371 243.2689 16.32490924  5830
Cosmos 2340 SL-6 plat                            199 x 156 km
1 24763U 97015C   97137.41405767  .07775702  38581-1  70205-3 0 91264
2 24763  62.8417 135.0392 0032748 117.1831 243.1502 16.35745268  5875
Cosmos 2340 SL-6 plat                            180 x 149 km
1 24763U 97015C   97137.65824205  .12906965  12573+0  55805-3 0 91265
2 24763  62.8401 134.0273 0023694 117.2295 243.0120 16.40555103  5913

Updates to follow...

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W  156m asl
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