Re: Decay space debris ID over S'pore 5/20
cyk (chiayk@singnet.com.sg)
Sat, 23 May 1998 18:57:49 +0800
Hi Alan/Tony:
Good noon.
Thanks for the prompt inputs. This is the most memorable meteor sighting for me
so far.
Thanks/Rgds
YK..20:00 hrs Sunday evening...
Alan Pickup wrote:
> Tony Beresford <starman@camtech.net.au> writes
> >This was a meteor. the duration is way too short for a satellite. The direction
> >of travel is also unlikely for a satellite. There is nothing in orbits
> >greater than 135 degrees inclination.
>
> Yes, yes and no :) Yes that it was probably a meteor. Yes that the
> duration is too short for a re-entry. But the direction, from SW to S,
> does *not* imply a rare retrograde orbit.
>
> I've been unable to find a decay candidate for this. The only decayer on
> that day, so far as I know, is #24633 = 94- 29 AAM (STEP-2 Pegasus deb).
> The OIG has yet to list it among the recent decayers, while the current
> 60-day decay forecast (issued on the 21st) predicts its decay on the
> 21st. My SatEvo analysis suggests that it decayed at about 09:00 UTC on
> the 20th, but given that the final elset was issued about 38 hours
> earlier, the uncertainty is ~10 hours. In fact, the orbital plane was
> well away from Singapore at the time of the report (11:34 GMT=UTC) so
> this cannot have been what was seen.
>
> For the record, the final OIG-issued elset for this was
>
> Pegasus deb AAM 429 x 346 km
> 1 24633U 94029AAM 98138.71574888 .05312914 00000-0 51108-1 0 5367
> 2 24633 81.3364 227.7027 0061332 329.2681 30.5438 15.60219406 97135
>
> while my final SatEvo predicted elset is
>
> Pegasus deb AAM 261 x 247 km
> 1 24633U 94029AAM 98140.30509314 .94890246 41998+1 11892+0 0 95313
> 2 24633 81.3245 225.7188 0010438 325.3153 34.6166 16.07492867 97387
>
> For anyone interested, here is a sneak preview of the beginning of my
> next SatEvo decay list...
>
> # Designation Name ----- Decay (1998) -----
> Predicted Actual?
>
> 24633 94- 29 AAM STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 20
> 24958 97- 58 C Sputnik-40 May 21.50
> 24899 97- 41 E C 2345 SL12 aux mot May 21.61
> 24419 86- 17 LV Mir deb May 22.0
> 24747 97- 10 D Zeya deb May 22.5
> ...
>
> Alan
> --
> Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
> Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
> Scotland | SatEvo satellite page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/