Decay watch: May 5
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Wed, 5 May 1999 21:03:30 +0100
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Object: #22583 = 93- 17 C = GPS 2-19 r1
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 1 00:39 May 4 22:14 +-2d 30.0 N 68.2 W
SpaceCom May 2 04:51 May 5 01:43 +-2d 2.9 S 10.4 E
SpaceCom May 3 00:05 May 5 01:28 +-1d 30.4 N 42.8 W
SpaceCom May 3 01:05 May 5 01:25 +-1d 33.1 N 51.9 W
SpaceCom May 3 23:06 May 4 21:56 +-14h 14.0 S 135.5 W
SpaceCom May 4 10:09 May 4 22:39 +-8h 16.0 N 30.5 E
SpaceCom May 4 15:59 May 4 22:12 +-4h 23.7 N 82.9 W
SpaceCom May 4 19:51 May 4 22:13 +-4h 24.3 N 81.8 W
SpaceCom May 5 01:24 May 4 22:26 +-1h 35.8 N 23.4 W
SatEvo Apr 30 19:15 May 4 21:00 +-2d
SatEvo May 1 20:55 May 5 00:55 +-2d
SatEvo May 3 15:00 May 5 00:10 +-9h 0.0 29.1 E
SatEvo May 4 19:50 May 4 21:58 +-90m 0.0 117.1 W
SatEvo May 5 15:00 May 4 21:58 +-45m 0.0 117.1 W
Final elset:
GPS 2-19 r1 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.0 v 150 x 145 km
1 22583U 93017C 99124.85512892 .28870860 27984-5 62091-3 0 7909
2 22583 36.1343 75.1799 0003390 137.9570 223.3632 16.46852472328972
Note: At the final elset, it was running 5 seconds late on my
prediction of a few hours before. I suspect that the drag and mean
elements above are too low. I place decay near a northbound equator
crossing over the E Pacific at the beginning of the next orbit that
would have carried it over Central America to touch the S tip of
Florida at 22:09.
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Object: #8755 = 76- 24 B = Cosmos 808 r
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 4 18:37 May 8 18:16 +-2d 27.6 N 3.4 W
SpaceCom May 5 11:39 May 8 12:09 +-2d 29.6 S 79.3 E
SatEvo Apr 28 21:00 May 9 19:00 +-3d
SatEvo Apr 30 19:10 May 7 23:00 +-2d
SatEvo May 3 15:15 May 8 05:00 +-1.2d
SatEvo May 4 19:40 May 8 02:43 +-18h
SatEvo May 5 19:45 May 8 04:12 +-18h
Latest elset:
Cosmos 808 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 208 x 200 km
1 08755U 76024B 99125.44861384 .01665662 -95238-6 56087-3 0 2637
2 08755 81.2075 135.8671 0006099 192.0452 168.0599 16.25662917277344
SatEvo prediction:
Cosmos 808 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 202 x 195 km
1 08755U 76024B 99126.00224399 .02052206 23604-2 57794-3 0 92632
2 08755 81.2068 135.1113 0005586 189.8619 170.1271 16.27742098277431
Cosmos 808 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 195 x 189 km
1 08755U 76024B 99126.55511662 .02597924 43604-2 58164-3 0 92639
2 08755 81.2059 134.3540 0004994 187.6745 172.3178 16.30282401277525
Cosmos 808 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 187 x 181 km
1 08755U 76024B 99127.04574109 .03489394 83966-2 58948-3 0 92636
2 08755 81.2048 133.6792 0004353 185.7258 174.2691 16.33221263277603
Note: The latest elset has it 1 second late against yesterday's
SatEvo prediction.
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Object: #11553 = 79- 4 D = Molniya 3-11 r2
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 5 01:15 May 8 15:40 +-2d 25.6 S 115.6 E
SatEvo May 4 19:45 May 8 21:33 +-1.5d
SatEvo May 5 20:00 May 8 23:00 +-1d
Latest elset:
Molniya 3-11 r2 3338 x 85 km
1 11553U 79004D 99125.72593319 .32803279 15491-4 56643-3 0 3584
2 11553 61.9393 29.4154 2010584 281.6743 176.9961 11.93164898146756
SatEvo prediction:
Molniya 3-11 r2 3155 x 83 km
1 11553U 79004D 99126.03079047 .35962127 24476-1 52944-3 0 93586
2 11553 61.9289 28.7293 1920659 281.7522 57.4385 12.13987887146795
Molniya 3-11 r2 2839 x 83 km
1 11553U 79004D 99126.51810865 .40042510 32025-1 55000-3 0 93586
2 11553 61.9076 27.5809 1757540 281.8838 59.0242 12.50937925146853
Molniya 3-11 r2 2455 x 83 km
1 11553U 79004D 99127.06799423 .46430149 47472-1 57543-3 0 93584
2 11553 61.8824 26.1973 1551231 282.0448 61.0485 12.98256987146923
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Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/