Decay watch: May 6
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Thu, 6 May 1999 22:52:37 +0100
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Object: #8755 = 76- 24 B = Cosmos 808 r
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 4 18:37 May 8 18:16 +-2d 27.6 N 3.4 W
SpaceCom May 5 11:39 May 8 12:09 +-2d 29.6 S 79.3 E
SpaceCom May 6 15:27 May 8 14:31 +-9h 9.2 S 129.9 W
SatEvo Apr 28 21:00 May 9 19:00 +-3d
SatEvo Apr 30 19:10 May 7 23:00 +-2d
SatEvo May 3 15:15 May 8 05:00 +-1.2d
SatEvo May 4 19:40 May 8 02:43 +-18h
SatEvo May 5 19:45 May 8 04:12 +-18h
SatEvo May 6 21:35 May 8 07:07 +-8h
Latest elset:
Cosmos 808 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 197 x 188 km
1 08755U 76024B 99126.55513149 .02168089 26275-2 49009-3 0 92786
2 08755 81.2109 134.3508 0006712 220.6233 139.3266 16.30144598277520
SatEvo prediction:
Cosmos 808 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 188 x 180 km
1 08755U 76024B 99127.04576059 .03397926 73892-2 57447-3 0 92787
2 08755 81.2099 133.6765 0005912 218.6744 141.2833 16.33184001277607
Cosmos 808 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 177 x 170 km
1 08755U 76024B 99127.53537148 .05029106 14935-1 55989-3 0 92782
2 08755 81.2084 133.0001 0004889 216.7201 143.2464 16.37211510277687
Cosmos 808 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 154 x 150 km
1 08755U 76024B 99128.08430389 .12992607 15653+0 37393-3 0 92780
2 08755 81.2057 132.2356 0003099 214.5116 145.4682 16.45386183277778
Note: Once again, the latest elset has it 1 second late against
yesterday's SatEvo prediction.
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Object: #11553 = 79- 4 D = Molniya 3-11 r2
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 5 01:15 May 8 15:40 +-2d 25.6 S 115.6 E
SpaceCom May 5 21:21 May 8 18:22 +-2d 7.1 S 123.8 W
SpaceCom May 6 17:09 May 8 07:57 +-7h 36.5 S 16.3 E
SatEvo May 4 19:45 May 8 21:33 +-1.5d
SatEvo May 5 20:00 May 8 23:00 +-1d
SatEvo May 6 21:45 May 8 04:25 +-12h
Latest elset:
Molniya 3-11 r2 2526 x 83 km
1 11553U 79004D 99126.87098815 .45097705 19950-4 58886-3 0 3681
2 11553 61.9381 26.7193 1589646 281.9253 243.4206 12.89232903146890
SatEvo prediction:
Molniya 3-11 r2 2358 x 82 km
1 11553U 79004D 99127.06287829 .57580147 12181+0 68564-3 0 93685
2 11553 61.9236 26.2176 1497088 281.9824 61.6775 13.10838677146927
Molniya 3-11 r2 2066 x 82 km
1 11553U 79004D 99127.36410956 .71858800 20822+0 78998-3 0 93680
2 11553 61.9049 25.3936 1330940 282.0771 63.3558 13.49445993146968
Molniya 3-11 r2 1718 x 82 km
1 11553U 79004D 99127.65597370 .98377630 44832+0 97032-3 0 93681
2 11553 61.8830 24.5414 1123607 282.1763 65.4827 13.98143031147009
Note: Against yesterday's prediction, this was running 4.7 minutes
early at the latest elset. The new prediction uses a SatEvo "Q-factor"
that gives a reasonable fit to the decay over the past two days.
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Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/