Decay watch: May 14

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Fri, 14 May 1999 20:21:44 +0100

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Object: #25347 = 98- 32 F = Iridium 70 Delta 2 r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   May 11 17:34     May 15 18:01 +-2d        18.5 S   124.9 E
SpaceCom   May 12 19:49     May 15 18:13 +-2d        60.8 S   163.8 E
SpaceCom   May 13 13:36     May 15 13:25 +-9h        19.8 S    69.2 E
SpaceCom   May 14 15:01     May 15 15:25 +-15h       26.7 S   146.2 W

SatEvo     May  9 14:25     May 15 18:00 +-1.5d
SatEvo     May 12 18:20     May 15 17:42 +-15h
SatEvo     May 13 19:20     May 15 11:41 +-9h        30.0 N    88.7 E
SatEvo     May 14 18:50     May 15 11:49 +-5h         0.0      90.1 E

Latest elset:
Iridm 70 Delta r 5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            197 x 179 km
1 25347U 98032F   99134.60698949  .04328053 -14554-5  82963-3 0  4660
2 25347  84.1022 320.8997 0013910  53.3240 306.9322 16.31660752 56125

SatEvo prediction:
Iridm 70 Delta r 5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            179 x 165 km
1 25347U 98032F   99135.03554914  .08913689  45214-1  93578-3 0 94665
2 25347  84.1002 320.5019 0010784  51.4911 308.6055 16.37604134 56192
Iridm 70 Delta r 5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            168 x 156 km
1 25347U 98032F   99135.21867104  .12734861  12559+0  73984-3 0 94664
2 25347  84.0988 320.3307 0008934  50.7024 309.3768 16.41467625 56223
Iridm 70 Delta r 5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            148 x 140 km
1 25347U 98032F   99135.40123639  .31042438  98051+0  48578-3 0 94668
2 25347  84.0965 320.1588 0006017  49.9105 310.1422 16.48351127 56253
Iridm 70 Delta r 5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            131 x 126 km
1 25347U 98032F   99135.46185527  .80252774  73140+1  52690-3 0 94661
2 25347  84.0948 320.1011 0003925  49.6452 310.3891 16.54104726 56263

Note: The latest elset has it only 0.6 second late against yesterday's
SatEvo prediction. I have moved the predicted decay a little further 
around the orbit to the vicinity of the southbound equator crossing 
(though this is still well before SpaceCom's prediction. The SatEvo-
predicted final orbit takes it northbound over N Carolina (11:13 UTC), 
Virginia, Pennsylvania and New York to Ottawa in Canada at 11:16.
You see, Jay, I'm doing the best I can for would-be decay watchers 
in New Jersey :)
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/