Decay watch: May 23 (Nimiq 1 Proton down)

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 23 May 1999 10:21:48 +0100

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Object: #25741 = 99- 27 B = Nimiq 1 Proton r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   May 21 08:04     May 22 23:52 +-1d        43.9 S    73.5 W
SpaceCom   May 22 00:36     May 22 21:33 +-13h       51.7 N    99.2 E
SpaceCom   May 22 08:49     May 22 21:04 +-8h        24.4 S     2.3 W
SpaceCom   May 22 14:42     May 22 20:33 +-4h        15.2 S   140.9 W
SpaceCom   May 22 18:36     May 22 20:28 +-3h         0.7 S   151.6 W
SpaceCom   May 23 01:53     May 22 20:28 +-3h         0.7 S   151.6 W

SatEvo     May 21 19:45     May 22 23:43 +-7h        51.2 S   100.4 W
SatEvo     May 22 11:25     May 22 22:50 +-3h        42.1 N    36.2 E
SatEvo     May 23 08:00     May 22 21:42 +-2h        31.3 N   159.7 E

Final elset:
Nimiq 1 Proton r                                 163 x 128 km
1 25741U 99027B   99142.63913123  .13370630  12652-4  14960-3 0   165
2 25741  51.5996 215.3762 0027066 275.2984  84.4949 16.47599665   286

Note: The final elset (5 or 6 hours before decay) has this 5 seconds 
early against yesterday's SatEvo prediction. I show it surviving for 
almost a full orbit longer than does SpaceCom, with decay while 
southbound over the western Pacific. My predicted elset for the
beginning of the final rev is:
Nimiq 1 Proton r                                 117 x 104 km
1 25741U 99027B   99142.88104132  .84609323  11257+2  19967-3 0 90164
2 25741  51.5960 213.9833 0009394 276.3403  83.5527 16.61026459   321
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Alan

-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/