Decay watch: May 30

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 30 May 1999 14:53:39 +0100

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Object: #25745 = 99- 28 B = USA 144 Titan 4 r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   May 24 21:58     Jun  2 11:36 +-5d        63.4 S    94.0 W
SpaceCom   May 26 06:28     Jun  1 14:00 +-4d        47.1 N     3.3 W
SpaceCom   May 28 11:26     Jun  1 11:29 +-2d        19.2 N   172.6 E
SpaceCom   May 29 13:30     Jun  1 13:04 +-2d         6.9 S   161.8 E

SatEvo     May 25 12:00     Jun  3       +-3d
SatEvo     May 27 19:00     Jun  1 23:00 +-1.4d
SatEvo     May 28 21:25     Jun  1 02:43 +-20h
SatEvo     May 29 16:20     Jun  1 06:25 +-18h
SatEvo     May 30 13:40     Jun  1 07:49 +-12h

Latest elset by Rainer Kracht:
USA 144 Titan 4 r                                236 x 182 km
1 25745U 99028  B 99149.87854588  .02060000  00000-0  63350-3 0    07
2 25745  63.4618  73.8155 0040905 168.6487 191.3530 16.23796259    02

SatEvo prediction:
USA 144 Titan 4 r                                218 x 173 km
1 25745U 99028  B 99150.80091980  .03210509  54487-2  65609-3 0 90001
2 25745  63.4602  70.1360 0033978 168.6412 191.4357 16.28854450   150
USA 144 Titan 4 r                                212 x 170 km
1 25745U 99028  B 99151.04636659  .03669826  71192-2  64736-3 0 90008
2 25745  63.4597  69.1521 0031795 168.6393 191.4326 16.30538451   196
USA 144 Titan 4 r                                205 x 167 km
1 25745U 99028  B 99151.29154134  .04306969  11116-1  63571-3 0 90000
2 25745  63.4590  68.1666 0029401 168.6374 191.4291 16.32484018   235

Note: Rainer's elset has this running 14 seconds late against the
prediction I made yesterday.
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Object: #25683 = 99- 20 B = Landsat 7 Delta r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   May 26 20:46     May 30 20:26 +-2d        25.7 S   102.5 W
SpaceCom   May 28 19:51     May 30 17:37 +-1d        52.4 S    75.7 W
SpaceCom   May 29 23:11     May 30 23:29 +-15h       48.6 S   160.1 W
SpaceCom   May 30 09:43     May 30 21:45 +-7h        12.7 N   109.3 W

SatEvo     May 25 19:30     Jun  1 00:00 +-1.2d
SatEvo     May 26 18:00     May 31 10:00 +-1d
SatEvo     May 27 18:00     May 31 09:00 +-0.8d
SatEvo     May 28 21:40     May 31 03:50 +-12h
SatEvo     May 29 16:40     May 31 03:04 +-9h
SatEvo     May 30 13:10     May 31 01:20 +-4h        12.4 S    16.1 E

Latest elset:
Lndst7 Delta r   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 d            232 x 128 km
1 25683U 99020B   99150.32737126  .07770615  94783-5  16298-3 0  1393
2 25683 107.5582 278.2527 0079098 243.7408 115.5759 16.34609455  6998

SatEvo prediction:
Lndst7 Delta r   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 d            203 x 124 km
1 25683U 99020B   99150.63283545  .12574463  73020-1  17552-3 0 91397
2 25683 107.5561 279.0887 0060970 242.9856 116.3907 16.40916847  7044
Lndst7 Delta r   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 d            168 x 115 km
1 25683U 99020B   99150.87619759  .23586594  29505+0  17531-3 0 91397
2 25683 107.5535 279.7613 0040668 242.3778 117.2086 16.49083282  7087
Lndst7 Delta r   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 d            155 x 111 km
1 25683U 99020B   99150.93681827  .30246588  40072+0  17066-3 0 91398
2 25683 107.5525 279.9303 0033517 242.2251 117.4346 16.52327245  7090
Lndst7 Delta r   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 d            138 x 106 km
1 25683U 99020B   99150.99730535  .47602041  16614+1  18093-3 0 91390
2 25683 107.5512 280.0997 0024446 242.0718 117.6804 16.56764706  7109

Note: The latest elset shows this as only 0.4 second late against my
prediction of yesterday. I predict decay near the end of the final
orbit above, on the approach to an equator crossing at 01:23 UTC at
11.5 deg E. The track continues NNW-wards across N Africa and Spain
at 01:33 UTC. SpaceCom puts decay more than two orbits earlier.
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Object: #20055 = 89- 43 D = Molniya 3-35 r2

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   May 30 09:12     Jun  5 07:36 +-4d        14.4 S   136.3 E

SatEvo     May 30 13:30     Jun  3 15:00 +-2d
Latest elset:
Molniya 3-35 r2                                  6020 x 91 km
1 20055U 89043D   99150.43695388  .28689094  29222-5  10678-2 0  8784
2 20055  63.4531 328.1798 3142004 246.2471  78.6618  9.47552933 56389

SatEvo prediction (the perigee height is uncertain):
Molniya 3-35 r2                                  5397 x 81 km
1 20055U 89043D   99151.05411339  .40725673  26567-1  80101-3 0 98786
2 20055  63.4493 327.2787 2915398 246.2460  80.6724  9.97279958 56441
Molniya 3-35 r2                                  4408 x 81 km
1 20055U 89043D   99152.01763603  .50348067  42036-1  84472-3 0 98780
2 20055  63.4420 325.7004 2508914 246.2446  85.5628 10.84329042 56548

Note: My last SatEvo decay list contrived to miss this decayer 
altogether :(
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/