Decay watch: May 31

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 31 May 1999 19:56:54 +0100

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Object: #25745 = 99- 28 B = USA 144 Titan 4 r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   May 24 21:58     Jun  2 11:36 +-5d        63.4 S    94.0 W
SpaceCom   May 26 06:28     Jun  1 14:00 +-4d        47.1 N     3.3 W
SpaceCom   May 28 11:26     Jun  1 11:29 +-2d        19.2 N   172.6 E
SpaceCom   May 29 13:30     Jun  1 13:04 +-2d         6.9 S   161.8 E
SpaceCom   May 30 16:04     Jun  1 11:07 +-1d        54.4 N    52.3 E
SpaceCom   May 31 13:15     Jun  1 13:44 +-18h       12.1 S    37.8 W

SatEvo     May 25 12:00     Jun  3       +-3d
SatEvo     May 27 19:00     Jun  1 23:00 +-1.4d
SatEvo     May 28 21:25     Jun  1 02:43 +-20h
SatEvo     May 29 16:20     Jun  1 06:25 +-18h
SatEvo     May 30 13:40     Jun  1 07:49 +-12h
SatEvo     May 31 17:30     Jun  1 07:48 +-9h        16.5 S    49.3 E

Latest elset by Rainer Kracht:
USA 144 Titan 4 r                                226 x 178 km
1 25745U 99028  B 99150.37082156  .02600828  00000-0  65758-3 0    00
2 25745  63.3428  72.0095 0036428 179.2003 180.7988 16.26397285    09

SatEvo prediction:
USA 144 Titan 4 r                                183 x 155 km
1 25745U 99028  B 99151.84186513  .08028400  47388-1  56027-3 0 90000
2 25745  63.3387  66.0725 0021376 179.2437 180.7594 16.38808338   241
USA 144 Titan 4 r                                171 x 148 km
1 25745U 99028  B 99152.02473849  .12117149  11965+0  43486-3 0 90001
2 25745  63.3376  65.3249 0017645 179.2493 180.7531 16.42375657   270
USA 144 Titan 4 r                                150 x 135 km
1 25745U 99028  B 99152.20708936  .27314581  58637+0  34391-3 0 90006
2 25745  63.3357  64.5743 0011505 179.2551 180.7465 16.48835109   302
USA 144 Titan 4 r                                137 x 126 km
1 25745U 99028  B 99152.26766773  .46732609  22714+1  32370-3 0 90004
2 25745  63.3345  64.3230 0008134 179.2570 180.7441 16.53004224   310

Note: I predict decay on the northbound approach to an equator crossing
at 07:52 UTC at 56.6 deg E. SpaceCom keeps it in orbit a few hours more.
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Object: #25683 = 99- 20 B = Landsat 7 Delta r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   May 26 20:46     May 30 20:26 +-2d        25.7 S   102.5 W
SpaceCom   May 28 19:51     May 30 17:37 +-1d        52.4 S    75.7 W
SpaceCom   May 29 23:11     May 30 23:29 +-15h       48.6 S   160.1 W
SpaceCom   May 30 09:43     May 30 21:45 +-7h        12.7 N   109.3 W
SpaceCom   May 30 16:01     May 30 22:05 +-4h        61.8 S   154.2 W
SpaceCom   May 30 19:29     May 30 21:37 +-2h        40.0 N    95.1 W
SpaceCom   May 30 21:58     May 30 21:13 +-38m       33.9 N    62.3 E

SatEvo     May 25 19:30     Jun  1 00:00 +-1.2d
SatEvo     May 26 18:00     May 31 10:00 +-1d
SatEvo     May 27 18:00     May 31 09:00 +-0.8d
SatEvo     May 28 21:40     May 31 03:50 +-12h
SatEvo     May 29 16:40     May 31 03:04 +-9h
SatEvo     May 30 13:10     May 31 01:20 +-4h        12.4 S    16.1 E
SatEvo     May 30 21:31     May 30 21:28 +-2h        63.5 N    71.1 W
SatEvo     May 31 18:45     May 30 21:28 +-1h        63.5 N    71.1 W

Final elset:
Lndst7 Delta r   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 d            168 x 109 km
1 25683U 99020B   99150.81526140  .24972555  97863-5  14791-3 0  1438
2 25683 107.5652 279.5692 0045449 251.9013 107.9641 16.50265857  7076

Note: The final elset shows it 24 seconds early against yesterday's 
prediction. The SpaceCom prediction was much more accurate than my
SatEvo one.
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Object: #20055 = 89- 43 D = Molniya 3-35 r2

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   May 30 09:12     Jun  5 07:36 +-4d        14.4 S   136.3 E
SpaceCom   May 31 00:19     Jun  3 17:01 +-2d        21.3 S   161.6 E

SatEvo     May 30 13:30     Jun  3 15:00 +-2d
SatEvo     May 31 18:55     Jun  4 01:00 +-2d

Latest elset:
Molniya 3-35 r2                                  5021 x 88 km
1 20055U 89043D   99151.46518045  .39666163  30007-5  10642-2 0  8847
2 20055  63.5170 326.5680 2761354 246.4329 137.7531 10.28365652 56493

SatEvo prediction:
Molniya 3-35 r2                                  4518 x 84 km
1 20055U 89043D   99152.02243902  .43703311  31780-1  87181-3 0 98846
2 20055  63.5131 325.6409 2554321 246.4271  84.8158 10.73797663 56554
Molniya 3-35 r2                                  3546 x 84 km
1 20055U 89043D   99153.00564557  .56105172  56275-1  93920-3 0 98846
2 20055  63.5050 323.8027 2112545 246.4165  90.0597 11.70769025 56667

Note: The latest elset has it 86 seconds late on yesterday's prediction.
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/