(Fwd) Re: Strange TLE for 02-024X

From: bob@zarya.info
Date: Fri May 24 2002 - 12:20:00 EDT

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    This my second attempt to post this item.......
    
    
    ------- Forwarded message follows -------
    From:           	Self <bob@zarya.info>
    To:             	SeeSat-L@satobs.org
    Subject:        	Re: Strange TLE for 02-024X
    Date sent:      	Fri, 24 May 2002 07:35:38 -0000
    
    I have been observing one of the objects from this launch by "another 
    means" whose name I dare not speak in this discussion list. I can 
    confirm the identification of one of them.
    
    Fengyun 1D has consistently  produced observations that fit the object 
    identified by NORAD as "PAYLOAD B", ie 2002-24B/27431.
    
    
    Until May 20, passes of Fengyun
    
    On 23 May 2002 at 23:31, Michael McCants wrote:
    
    > Ed Light wrote:
    > 
    > >The last 5 TLEs from OIG for the 02-024 objects, given below, display
    > >some very perplexing behavior - most easily seen by looking at the
    > >mean motions - especially for 27430 and 27433.  Has anyone a clue as
    > >to what caused this? Exotic maneuvering? Bookkeeping error?
    > 
    > Ed Cannon and I have been watching the three main objects for
    > the last few nights.  Based on slightly different brightnesses,
    > I believe that the original elset for Payload A was for the
    > Hai Yang 1 and for Payload B was for Feng Yun 1D.
    > 
    > Hai Yang 1
    > 1 27430U 02024A   02142.64934828  .00000242  00000-0  16357-3 0   148
    > 2 27430  98.8036 193.3182 0014882 173.3167 186.8200 14.09327826  1064
    > 
    > Feng Yun 1D
    > 1 27431U 02024B   02143.14736603 -.00000263  00000-0 -12638-3 0   116
    > 2 27431  98.8015 193.8011 0015344 166.9971 193.1599 14.09141609  1147
    > 
    > The Long March (27432) is tumbling with a period of about 0.54 seconds.
    > It is bright and spectacular.  The elsets for 27431 and 27432 have
    > been consistent.
    > 
    > There were no new elsets for 27433 for a couple of days.  I was
    > unable to find an object at the location of the old elset.
    > Last night I was able to observe a relatively faint (magnitude
    > 7 or so in strong moonlight) object (at 3:13UT May 23) that
    > matches the 14.224 elsets:
    > 
    > 1 27433U 02024D   02142.77626556  .00008616  00000-0  38830-2 0   110
    > 2 27433  98.8008 193.4767 0002449 122.6165 237.5265 14.22433817  1076
    > 1 27433U 02024D   02143.06215256  .00006886  00000-0  31083-2 0   136
    > 2 27433  98.8000 193.7624 0002845 112.6268 270.6367 14.22430678  1125
    > 1 27433U 02024D   02143.19831918  .00006373  00000-0  28781-2 0   142
    > 2 27433  98.8000 193.8983 0002782 112.4082 247.7387 14.22432327  1148
    > 1 27430U 02024A   02143.50000000  .00005896  00000-0  26645-2 0   173
    > 2 27430  98.8000 194.1997 0002639 108.8289 355.2809 14.22435326  1172
    > 1 27433U 02024D   02143.55002491  .00001432  00000-0  64259-3 0   151
    > 2 27433  98.8013 194.2505 0005818 131.9413 228.2745 14.22454859  1195
    > 1 27430U 02024A   02143.69059312  .00005896  00000-0  26643-2 0   160
    > 2 27430  98.8000 194.3900 0002640 108.2647 251.2791 14.22437589  1204
    > 
    > The 14.228 elset also matches:
    > 
    > 1 27430U 02024A   02143.71921758  .00207776  00000-0  89773-1 0   157
    > 2 27430  98.8102 194.4368 0010768  95.9942  50.7862 14.22856854  1218
    > 
    > So it is certainly possible that this piece of debris has a small
    > enough mass that it could have a high drag like this.  This is a
    > "non-standard" elset since the perigee plus mean anomaly does not
    > add up to about 360 degrees.
    > 
    > The 14.25 elsets give a prediction about 70 seconds later than
    > my observation:
    > 
    > 1 27433U 02024D   02143.62023431  .00001428  00000-0  60925-3 0   168
    > 2 27433  98.7861 194.3309 0014836 202.2008 157.9016 14.25059165  1205
    > 1 27430U 02024A   02143.90108459  .00122329  00000-0  51214-1 0   208
    > 2 27430  98.7992 194.6064 0012128 189.1582 170.9388 14.25125583  1249
    > 1 27430U 02024A   02144.11171509  .00016806  00000-0  71637-2 0   213
    > 2 27430  98.7967 194.8171 0011320 188.7367 171.3600 14.25107402  1276
    > 
    > It is possible that there is another debris object here?
    > 
    > Mike McCants
    > Austin, TX
    > 
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    > 
    
    
    ------- End of forwarded message -------
    ----------------------------------
    Bob Christy
    Kettering Group
    ----------------------------------
    bob@zarya.info
    http://www.zarya.info
    
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