RE: Decaying Raduga 33

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@rogers.com)
Date: Mon May 03 2004 - 11:36:30 EDT

  • Next message: Ted Molczan: "RE: Decaying Raduga 33"

    Daniel Crawford wrote:
    
    > 3 passes last evening/this morning, struck out.
    
    We need to understand how and why you struck out. Were you clouded out? If not,
    are you confident that you looked at the right place and at the right time? What
    instrument(s) did you use?
    
    The object was illuminated by the sun during the first several minutes of your
    first pass, 2004 May 03 at 02:47 UTC; during the remainder, it was far too high
    to have experienced atmospheric heating.
    
    Your second pass, at 05:20 UTC, was entirely in shadow, and the object passed
    below point where heating begins, approx 120 km, just past culmination. It
    reached perigee, 108 km, when at 3 deg elevation, just before setting. You would
    have to have been looking near azimuth 50 deg, elevation 10 deg, to have had
    much hope of seeing anything.
    
    During Your third and fourth passes of the night, the object had climbed well
    above perigee, so any heating effects should have subsided.
    
    I have appended predictions for your two best passes tonight. Times are you
    local DST, 5 h behind UTC.
    
    The first pass will be almost entirely illuminated by the sun, but in bright
    twilight. The eclipsed portion will be too high for heating.
    
    Your third pass, will be totally in shadow, but the object will pass through
    perigee, about 101 km, shortly after it rises.
    
    I suggest attempting to observe it at a point near culmination, to give the
    heating time to build up. Angular velocity will be very high - about 2 deg/s. I
    suggest 7x50 binocs,
    
    Prediction time uncertainty is at least several minutes.
    
    Good luck tonight!
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    1 23794U 96010A   04124.40636530  .52107322  13937-4  26965-2 0  4960
    2 23794  47.7717 124.7199 2833802  93.6443 299.0608 10.09727823 72000
    
     3/ 5/ 4  20:57 - 05:27 DST  J2000.0  EL >  0  Daniel Crawford
    Raduga 33      96010A   23794   Bull =  496    Daniel Crawford
    
      TIME      %I   Mvd    AZ  EL     R.A.       DEC      FE    VANG  RANGE   ALT
    --------    --  ----   ---  --   --------  ---------  ----   ----  -----  -----
    20:55:23    45   9.1   215   0   07:30:07  -35:21:41   4.5   0.05   3987   1133
    20:57:55    51   8.2   209   5   08:10:41  -33:23:25   4.1   0.08   2956    889
    20:59:34    58   7.5   202   9   08:51:02  -32:07:02   3.8   0.11   2293    740
    21:00:39    65   6.9   194  13   09:30:02  -31:04:36   3.6   0.16   1880    648
    21:01:25    71   6.4   187  15   10:07:48  -29:56:48   3.4   0.22   1612    586
    21:01:59    77   6.0   179  16   10:43:16  -28:37:19   3.3   0.27   1436    542
    21:02:27    82   5.6   171  18   11:18:09  -26:59:21   3.2   0.32   1313    507
    21:02:50    87   5.4   163  18   11:50:40  -25:08:06   3.1   0.36   1231    479
    21:03:11    91   5.2   155  18   12:22:55  -22:57:51   2.9   0.40   1176    454
    21:03:30    94   5.1   147  18   12:53:29  -20:36:17   2.8   0.42   1144    433
    21:03:48    97   5.0   139  17   13:22:51  -18:04:42   2.7   0.43   1131    413
    21:04:06    99   5.0   132  16   13:51:49  -15:22:16   2.6   0.42   1136    393
    21:04:24    99   5.0   125  14   14:19:37  -12:36:45   2.5   0.41   1159    374
    21:04:42    99   5.1   118  12   14:45:43  -09:55:57   2.4   0.38   1198    356
    21:05:02    99   5.2   111  10   15:12:19  -07:10:22   2.4   0.35   1260    336
    21:05:24      UMBRA    104   8   15:38:27  -04:30:01   2.3   0.30   1347    315
    21:05:49      UMBRA     98   5   16:04:20  -01:58:20   2.2   0.26   1466    292
    21:06:18      UMBRA     92   2   16:29:49   00:19:03   2.1   0.21   1624    267
    21:06:53      UMBRA     86   0   16:55:13   02:18:20   2.0   0.17   1836    239
    
    
     4/ 5/ 4  20:57 - 05:27 DST  J2000.0  EL >  0  Daniel Crawford
    Raduga 33      96010A   23794   Bull =  496    Daniel Crawford
    
      TIME      %I   Mvd    AZ  EL     R.A.       DEC      FE    VANG  RANGE   ALT
    --------    --  ----   ---  --   --------  ---------  ----   ----  -----  -----
    01:35:35      UMBRA    291   0   08:10:01   15:00:03   7.6   0.10   1159    106
    01:36:48      UMBRA    302   7   07:59:58   27:39:11   8.0   0.35    576    101
    01:37:09      UMBRA    310  12   07:46:11   36:41:32   8.1   0.64    420    102
    01:37:21      UMBRA    319  16   07:28:16   45:06:04   8.2   0.97    339    103
    01:37:29      UMBRA    327  19   07:04:49   52:49:49   8.3   1.31    292    104
    01:37:35      UMBRA    336  22   06:32:20   59:52:35   8.4   1.62    262    105
    01:37:40      UMBRA    344  25   05:43:03   66:08:37   8.5   1.89    242    105
    01:37:44      UMBRA    353  26   04:34:57   70:29:16   8.7   2.08    230    106
    01:37:48      UMBRA      2  27   02:53:13   72:33:37   8.8   2.22    223    107
    01:37:51      UMBRA      9  28   01:29:38   71:38:33   8.9   2.27    221    107
    01:37:54      UMBRA     16  28   00:20:32   68:43:34   9.0   2.26    221    108
    01:37:57      UMBRA     24  28   23:31:09   64:33:41   9.2   2.19    224    108
    01:38:00      UMBRA     31  27   22:57:07   59:50:29   9.3   2.08    230    109
    01:38:04      UMBRA     39  26   22:26:55   53:25:51   9.4   1.88    242    109
    01:38:08      UMBRA     46  24   22:07:02   47:22:38   9.5   1.67    257    110
    01:38:13      UMBRA     54  22   21:50:22   40:38:48   9.6   1.40    281    111
    01:38:18      UMBRA     60  20   21:39:03   34:54:51   9.7   1.16    308    112
    01:38:24      UMBRA     66  18   21:29:36   29:13:37   9.8   0.93    345    114
    01:38:32      UMBRA     72  15   21:21:06   23:16:12   9.9   0.70    398    116
    01:38:43      UMBRA     78  12   21:13:44   17:14:39  10.0   0.49    476    119
    01:38:58      UMBRA     83   9   21:07:53   11:34:06  10.1   0.33    589    123
    01:39:21      UMBRA     88   6   21:03:23   05:57:59  10.2   0.20    769    131
    01:39:59      UMBRA     92   3   21:00:59   00:29:22  10.4   0.11   1073    146
    01:41:07      UMBRA     96   0   21:02:12  -04:57:45  10.9   0.06   1624    181
    
    
    
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