Decay watch: Raduga 33

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed May 05 2004 - 18:14:20 EDT

  • Next message: Marco Langbroek: "Raduga 33"

    Although I sent an update on this decayer to the List yesterday, it has
    not (yet) appeared. Here, in full, is my latest notice from my Decay
    Watch page.
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23794 = 96- 10 A = Raduga 33
    Russian military communications satellite left on its transfer orbit of
    about 250 x 36 500 km x 48 deg. after its Proton-K rocket Blok DM-2
    upper stage failed to reignite following launch on February 19, 1996.
    (Dimensions unknown   Mass : 1925 kg)
    
    Notice prepared: 2004 May 5 21:50 UTC
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SCC        May  1 15:12     May  5 06:30 +-2d        13.0 N   170.7 E
    SCC        May  1 15:40     May  5 06:30 +-2d        11.4 N   169.2 E
    SCC        May  2 10:22     May  5 05:08 +-2d        41.3 N    53.1 W
    SCC        May  4 05:11     May  6 00:00 +-1d        33.7 N    36.1 E
    SCC        May  5 06:34     May  6 03:06 +-13h       36.4 N    16.1 W
    SCC        May  5 14:45     May  6 03:12 +-8h        37.3 N    19.4 W
    SCC        May  5 21:21     May  6 04:59 +-7h        19.9 N    22.1 W
    
    SatEvo     Apr 29 12:20     May  5 00:38 +-2d
    SatEvo     Apr 30 18:35     May  5 10:28 +-1.7d
    SatEvo     May  1 18:45     May  5 16:47 +-1.4d
    SatEvo     May  2 21:45     May  5 20:24 +-1d
    SatEvo     May  3 19:10     May  6 02:01 +-20h
    SatEvo     May  4 18:35     May  5 18:14 +-10h       34.7 N   120.7 E
    SatEvo     May  5 07:00     May  5 22:08 +-6h        34.8 N    61.4 E
    SatEvo     May  5 20:30     May  5 23:42 +-4h        46.7 N     3.3 E
    SatEvo     May  5 21:50     May  6 04:51 +-4h        35.9 N    42.3 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Raduga 33        6.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   17       1771 x 100 km
    1 23794U 96010A   04126.70181634  .99999999  24554-4  23324-2 0  5172
    2 23794  47.7720 117.6376 1142104 100.7354 270.3454 13.88001319 72275
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Raduga 33        6.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   17       1650 x 96 km
    1 23794U 96010A   04126.77354234 1.22502913  46673+0  22578-2 0 95170
    2 23794  47.7659 117.3277 1071578 101.0256 271.1921 14.06041690 72280
    Raduga 33        6.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   17       1529 x 95 km
    1 23794U 96010A   04126.84398997 1.33455414  58943+0  22508-2 0 95173
    2 23794  47.7594 117.0155 0996812 101.3181 270.0305 14.24043491 72292
    Raduga 33        6.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   17       1400 x 94 km
    1 23794U 96010A   04126.91350502 1.47360168  77681+0  22484-2 0 95170
    2 23794  47.7524 116.6987 0916329 101.6149 268.8003 14.43520865 72303
    Raduga 33        6.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   17       1262 x 93 km
    1 23794U 96010A   04126.98202847 1.66160779  11296+1  22575-2 0 95174
    2 23794  47.7446 116.3769 0828383 101.9165 267.4817 14.64923709 72310
    Raduga 33        6.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   17       1110 x 92 km
    1 23794U 96010A   04127.04947622 1.93337928  16201+1  22938-2 0 95175
    2 23794  47.7384 116.0494 0729738 102.2235 266.0377 14.89048842 72329
    Raduga 33        6.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   17       938 x 90 km
    1 23794U 96010A   04127.11572321 2.36065726  28677+1  23645-2 0 95171
    2 23794  47.7284 115.7155 0615167 102.5369 264.4095 15.17238783 72336
    Raduga 33        6.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   17       731 x 88 km
    1 23794U 96010A   04127.18056167 3.18471481  61198+1  25116-2 0 95173
    2 23794  47.7195 115.3735 0473121 102.8578 262.4678 15.52461844 72345
    Raduga 33        6.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   17       432 x 85 km
    1 23794U 96010A   04127.24352253 6.19391629  50000+2  30075-2 0 95175
    2 23794  47.7016 115.0205 0260995 103.1893 259.7354 16.05722856 72356
    
    Note: The latest elset has this running 152 sec late after only two
    orbits. It is possible that it has shed some appendages and reduced
    its drag. My estimate for the decay has also slipped. I now
    place this following perigee on the penultimate SatEvo-predicted rev
    above, southbound over the Atlantic after a pass across the USA and
    SE Canada from N California at 04:36 UTC to Nova Scotia at 04:46.
    The predictions are even more uncertain than ever.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo Home Page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
    
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