RE: obs and orbit for unid

From: Ted Molczan (ssl3molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Tue May 14 2013 - 16:04:23 UTC

  • Next message: Ted Molczan: "RE: obs and orbit for unid"

    Kevin Fetter wrote:
    
    > Incase it's a sat, I tried to measure positions and get a very rough orbit.
    > 
    > 99999 99 999A   1775 G 20130514082320052 15 25 1857742-050282 37 S
    > 99999 99 999A   1775 G 20130514082323221 15 25 1903248-034202 37 S
    > 99999 99 999A   1775 G 20130514082325791 15 25 1908241-024250 37 S
    > 
    > MAY14UNID
    > 1 99999           13134.34960406 0.00003429  00000-0  50000-4 0    06
    > 2 99999  61.2341 254.6422 0010863 296.6594 111.5052 15.55218716    09
    > 
    > Oh well, if it was a sat, it was nice.
    
    I found an apparent correlation with 77112F / 10594, last observed 44 days ago, in this orbit per Mike McCants:
    
    NOSS 1-2 (F)                                            358 X 1731 km
    1 10594U 77112F   13089.85781537  .00013428  00000-0  79300-3 0    05
    2 10594  63.2950  16.5296 0924972  74.1861 295.9087 13.57205018    07
    
    Your object was more than 9 min early, attributable to the recent increase in solar activity.
    
    I obtained the following update by adjusting the rate of decay of the above to zero out the time residual, propagating
    the mean elements to the time of observation using SGP4, then manually adjusting eccentricity to roughly reflect the
    expected change due to the odd zonal harmonics not addressed by SGP4:
    
                                                            354 X 1726 km
    1 70000U          13134.34953704  .00014138  00000-0  79300-3 0    06
    2 70000  63.2950 257.3580 0925000  75.2684 336.0357 13.58411220    06
    
    This should be sufficient to recover the object. As a guess, prediction time uncertainty is about 30 s per 24 h from
    epoch.
    
    I see that Cees Bassa has found the same correlation.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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