Re: Crew Dragon Visibility

From: ronlee--- via Seesat-l <seesat-l_at_satobs.org>
Date: Sat, 23 May 2020 06:58:00 -0600
I took Marco's Demo-1 elset and used his Proxy Tle program to get this

CREW DRAGON DEMO-2
1 70000U 20999A   20148.87303366 -.00003589  11345-4  00000+0 0    03
2 70000  51.6437 089.6402 0114760  48.6187  62.8495 15.97921108    04

RAAN looks good but along track may have a few minutes uncertainty.


> Elements please? I have a few pots to try to catch it remotely...
>
> Brad Young PE
> Visual:
> Oberwerk 8 x 40 Mariner binoculars
> Meade ETX-125 
> 22" f/4.2 UC Obsession
> COSPAR 8336 =TULSA1 +36.139208,-95.983429 660ft, 201m
> COSPAR 8335 =TULSA2 +35.8311  -96.1411 1083ft, 330m
> Remote Imaging:
> MPC I89 COSPAR 7777 38.165653 -2.326735 5150ft, 1650m Nerpio, Spain
> MPC Q62 COSPAR 7778 -31.2733 149.0644 3400ft, 1122m Siding Spring, NSW,
> Australia 
> MPC H06 COSPAR 7779 32.92 -105.528 7298ft, 2225m Mayhill, New Mexico USA 
> MPC 323 COSPAR 7782 -32.008 116.135 984ft, 300m Perth, WA, Australia
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Saturday, May 23, 2020, 12:56:53 AM CDT, Richard Cole via Seesat-l
> <seesat-l_at_satobs.org> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> Joe,
>
> Using on the DM-1 launch orbit parameters as a starting point to
> generate elements I make it as follows (it's not good).
>
> 9:02 ISS azimuth 0 deg max elevation 14 deg
> 9:21 DM-2 azimuth 18 deg max elevation 9 deg (so too low)
>
> 10:40 ISS azimuth 30 deg max elevation 34 deg (into eclipse)
> 10:53 DM-2 azimuth 333 deg max elevation 15 deg (into eclipse)
>
> DM-2 will be maneuvering to achieve the ISS orbit by the time you
> indicate, so it may be a few minutes later than the times above (raising
> the orbit makes it come later). But it will be still be lower than ISS
> and I think the eclipse on the later pass will be difficult to beat.
>
> When I have seen Dragon at reasonable elevations on the launch orbit it
> has been bright, mag 1 at least.
>
> regards
>
>
> Richard Cole
>
> On 22/05/2020 14:58, skywayinc--- via Seesat-l wrote:
>> I have speculating on the possible visibility of the Dragon capsule
>> from here in the New York City area.  As best as I can make out, the
>> ISS will be passing closest to Cape Canaveral on a northeast
>> trajectory next Wednesday at 20:08 UT (4:08 p.m. EDT), followed 25
>> minutes later by the launch of the SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket.  Dragon is
>> scheduled to dock at the ISS nineteen hours and 6 minutes after
>> launch, on Thursday at 15:39 UT (11:39 a.m. EDT).
>>
>> According to Heavens-Above, the ISS is to make two passes as seen
>> from NYC on Wednesday evening.  Both will peak in the northern sky at
>> (respectively) 9:02 p.m. EDT and 10:39 p.m. EDT.
>>
>> My question is, how far behind the ISS will the Dragon capsule be?
>> My "back of the envelope" calculations suggest that the Dragon will
>> be trailing the ISS by roughly 17 to 19 minutes . . . and moving
>> along basically the same path across the sky that the ISS had taken.
>> I'm not sure if there is a preliminary elset to allow verifying this;
>> I'd like to publicize a possible view of the first crewed mission
>> launched to the ISS in nine years . . . something I know the general
>> public would have an interest in . . . but I'd want to be sure of the
>> prospective viewing circumstances.
>>
>> I recall comments here on SeeSat-L about how, in the past, it has
>> been difficult obtaining sighting details for Dragon missions, even
>> on Heavens-Above.
>>
>> The other issue is how bright the Dragon would be?  We all know that
>> the ISS can shine as bright as magnitude -4, but the much-smaller
>> Dragon capsule is considerably fainter.  From past Dragon missions, I
>> have seen estimates placing it "as bright as Altair" (mag. +0.7) to
>> as dim as mag. +5.  Most estimates place it somewhere in the +1.5 to
>> +2.0 magnitude range.
>>
>> -- joe rao
>>
>>
>>
>>
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>
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Received on Sat May 23 2020 - 07:59:03 UTC

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