Using fairly loose parameters, Rob Matson's program gives me the following (abridged) Iridium flare prediction: Latitude: 30.30860, Longitude: -97.72790, Altitude: 150.0 m Time Zone: UTC -6.0 h; Date: 97-11-05; Iridium 13 Time Azm El Rang I Sun FlrAng Mag FlareLat FlareLong ----------------------------------------------------------- 17:55:20 266 06 2711 L -3.4 2.82 4.7 Does not intersect 17:55:44 262 05 2757 L -3.5 1.50 3.7 Does not intersect 17:56:10 258 04 2819 L -3.6 2.95 5.7 Does not intersect ("Does not intersect" means that the predicted centerline does not touch the Earth's surface. "L" is "Lit".) Given the 1.4-degree variability in the attitude of the satellites, I believe this prediction has at least a remote possibility of really having a "FlrAng" of 0.10, which is very good. However, this one is 5 degrees above the horizon at a range of 2757 km., in bright twilight and not far from the Sun. (The solar azimuth is 254.) I believe that the geometry is such that I'm seeing the reflecting antenna at a very oblique angle, so it's almost "edge-on" and presents only a fraction of its area to me. (I know there's a term for that view of the antenna, but I can't think of what it is. The satellite is at a very poor phase angle. What does that make the reflecting antenna?) Now my real question: Given that I have a site with a low- enough horizon, and assuming for discussion that the real antenna angle will be 0.10, what might I see? It's about triple the range of the best ones, so right off it's only 1/9 as bright. But there's also the oblique orientation of the mirror, atmospheric extinction, etc. So I guess my question really is, what it the likelihood of seeing a bright flash or flare or glint visible at one-power from fringe predictions such as this? Or, how bright would such a flare be, and how long would it last? There was a predicted *real* Iridium "monster" (i.e., not a fringe prediction) at the site of a semi-annual star party Friday evening, and I'm pretty sure that the sky in the area was very nearly perfect, so I imagine that a fair number of astronomers saw it. Sue Worden was supposed to be out there, and I can hardly wait to hear/see her report of the event. (I just was not able to get away from my office in time to go.) So anyway, I consoled myself by going outside the building and even with a late start seeing 5 satellites at one-power within 26 minutes, from a poor location! (Like I said, a perfect night!) Cosmos 1346 Rk (82027B, #13121), Cosmos 1980 Rk (88102B, #19650), Cosmos 1697 Rk (85097B, #16182), Cosmos 2297 Rk (94077B, #23405), and HST (90037B, #20580). Cosmos 2297 Rk made a nice pass through the zenith -- except that it was at a minimum at that point! In about two or three minutes it tumbled once -- a long maximum fairly high in the NNW, a long minimum up around culmination, and another long maximum fairly high in the SSE. Ed Cannon ecannon@mail.utexas.edu Univ. of Texas at Austin, USA, 30.29N, 97.74W, 150m