The last three elsets show the perigee to be decreasing and the apogee increasing, all due to luni-solar perturbations... Granat 196153 x 7546 km 1 20352U 89096A 98293.64586080 .00000479 00000-0 00000-0 0 8867 2 20352 66.2790 293.8510 8713393 17.2330 340.3880 0.24386428 5909 Granat 196305 x 7338 km 1 20352U 89096A 98310.25726220 .00000230 00000-0 00000-0 0 8872 2 20352 65.8970 293.5070 8732327 17.1830 1.0590 0.24396106 5941 Granat 196594 x 6745 km 1 20352U 89096A 98314.25726220 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 08 2 20352 66.1100 293.4700 8785363 17.1240 352.7110 0.24447420 5942 I calculate that the perigee will be forced down to 2000 km by next February 24 and to 1000 km by May 5, with little or no change in the mean motion during this period. I expect decay to occur about June 2 by which time the inclination should also have decreased to 50 deg. There is an interesting Granat WWW page at: http://arc.iki.rssi.ru/granat/granat.html Alan -- Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144 Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/