Re: Decay watch: MSTI 2 & Molniya 3-11
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Fri, 27 Nov 1998 21:18:50 +0000
Against the prediction I posted yesterday, MSTI 2 was running 5 seconds
late at the epoch of the latest elset:
MSTI 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 d 186 x 181 km
1 23101U 94028A 98331.55532441 .03129027 23044-5 52386-3 0 9396
2 23101 97.0045 176.7200 0003488 203.9649 156.1514 16.33345382258953
My new analysis suggests a slip in its decay to November 28.9 +-0.25
day.
Prediction:
MSTI 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 d 175 x 172 km
1 23101U 94028A 98332.04490407 .04822333 16042-1 54170-3 0 99395
2 23101 97.0032 177.2597 0002783 201.9167 158.0714 16.37195218259032
MSTI 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 d 168 x 165 km
1 23101U 94028A 98332.28920645 .06444577 30399-1 53323-3 0 99395
2 23101 97.0022 177.5302 0002354 200.8897 159.1007 16.39906539259079
MSTI 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 d 157 x 155 km
1 23101U 94028A 98332.53303465 .09503258 64636-1 40864-3 0 99390
2 23101 97.0009 177.8014 0001828 199.8600 160.1329 16.43686807259113
MSTI 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 d 139 x 138 km
1 23101U 94028A 98332.77613901 .21544083 45918+0 25724-3 0 99398
2 23101 96.9985 178.0735 0001071 198.8261 161.1699 16.50340873259152
MSTI 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 d 130 x 129 km
1 23101U 94028A 98332.83672096 .35429646 15035+1 25356-3 0 99396
2 23101 96.9974 178.1419 0000774 198.5666 161.4306 16.53634256259168
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Molniya 3-11 was 5 seconds early on yesterdays prediction at...
Molniya 3-11 4188 x 89 km
1 11240U 79004A 98331.44520424 .20232657 12293-4 50530-3 0 442
2 11240 61.9829 347.2272 2406324 284.5899 50.4111 11.04594853149037
My current estimate for decay remains as December 3.5 +- 2 days.
Updated prediction:
Molniya 3-11 3936 x 89 km
1 11240U 79004A 98332.07236170 .21415243 88546-2 51229-3 0 90446
2 11240 61.9821 346.0016 2292141 284.7247 51.1379 11.29584978149107
Molniya 3-11 3747 x 89 km
1 11240U 79004A 98332.51147223 .22669584 10230-1 52354-3 0 90449
2 11240 61.9814 345.1112 2204389 284.8226 51.9285 11.48929854149157
Molniya 3-11 3517 x 89 km
1 11240U 79004A 98333.02853357 .24412494 12348-1 53929-3 0 90447
2 11240 61.9806 344.0253 2094781 284.9421 52.9228 11.73246081149210
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/